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华侨银行料本港CPI续跌 忧实际利率上升碍经济复苏
阿思达克 10-27 10:14
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,本港经济持续受压,其中第三季失业率上升至近十六年高位,而9月消费者物价指数(CPI)亦连跌三个月。虽说一系列纾困措施是通缩的主要原因,但物价持续受压,仍反映出本地消费因劳动力市场转弱而维持低迷。未来几个月,消费者物价指数可能延续跌势。在此情况下,该行担忧实际利率将上升,从而阻碍经济复苏。

相反,市场继续关注香港强劲的金融市场。首先,IPO市场保持炽热。上周,蚂蚁集团(06688.HK)在港上市计划获批後,市场积极筹集资金,为这个大型IPO、月结及iBond认购做准备。因此,上周香港金管局继续进行大规模干预,令银行体系总结余增加至4,000亿港元以上水平,为2015年11月以来新高。未来一周,港元强劲的需求料持续。在短暂因素消退後,港元市场料回归正常,伴随着港元拆息大幅回落。然而,只要美联储维持利率在接近零的水平,香港资金流入的势头则可能未完待续。

其次,香港和中国内地继续推进金融互联互通。一方面,上周深圳和香港启动ETF通。另一方面,理财通北向和南向拟各设定1,500亿人民币单边总额度和100万人民币个人额度,其他细节将在确定後适时公布。大湾区金融深度融合发展,或有助推动人民币国际化、满足两岸投资者分散投资风险的需求,以及推动大湾区金融业的发展。

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