《即日市评》恒指「六连升」至近一个月高 汇控绩前弹
受汇控(00005.HK)及平安(02318.HK)及油股升势带动下,恒指今日向上。市场对美国白宫与国会就新刺激经济方案达成协议感乐观,美股道指及纳指昨晚各升0.5%及0.2%;执笔之时美汇指数处92.76、摩通亚太区货币指数升0.2%至106.85、美股道指期货最新升100点或0.4%、美股纳指期货最新升26点或0.2%。今早人民币中间价降147点报6.6703兑一美元,自逾两年高位下调;大型新股蚂蚁集团(688688.SH)A股将於下周四(29日)申讲,上证综指今跌1%收3,278,深证成指下滑2%,内地创业板指数跌2.7%,沪深两市成交额共6,877亿人民币。
恒指今早低开13点後,早段曾跌102点一度低见24,683点,其後倒升,午後升幅曾扩大至184点见24,970点,全日升132点或0.5%,收24,918点,连升六日及升至近一个月高位;国指升40点或0.4%,收10,125点;恒生科技指数跌135点或1.8%,收7,484点。大市全日成交总额1,116.48亿元,沪、深港通南下交易录得净流入金额分别为27.63亿及14.4亿元人民币。科技股偏软,腾讯(00700.HK)走低0.4%,中资油股抽上,中海油(00883.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)各扬7.3%及6.5%,汇丰环球研究料中海油今年下半年复苏,估计明年盈利可倍升。
恒指本周累升531点或2.2%、国指本周累升210点或2.1%、但恒生科指本周累跌120点或1.6%;市场关注美国国会能否通过刺激经济方案、美汇走弱下人币近日升至逾两年高,中证监周中公布批准蚂蚁集团(688688.SH)上海科创板上市及下周四申购。
【内险股起舞 憧憬「开门红」】
中资保险股起舞,中国平安股价上扬2.3%收86.35元,国寿(02628.HK)、太保(02601.HK)、中国太平(00966.HK)股价分别升2.4%、3.9%及8%。中金报告指,过去一段时间A/H股保险板块股价表现优秀,认为主要由於部分公司开门红预售情况较好和估值切换,考虑到市场普遍预料中期内(三至六个月)长端利率保持较高水平甚至略有向上,因此开门红新单增速水平和可持续性(即之後3个季度的增长情况),将成为决定这一轮保险股估值修复空间和时间长度的关键因素。
中金表示,基於对影响开门红增速的六个因素的分析,该行尝试估计了明年各家险企开门红新业务价值增速:预计行业明年首季新业务价值按年增长10%至15%。该行认为,未来三至六个月A/H股保险板块的确定性估值修复空间还有20%/30%,部分个股空间超过40%,而低估值开门红增速更快的公司更具风险收益比。
【下周二「放榜」 汇控股价弹】
港股主板今日市宽略轻微改善,主板股票的升跌比率为20比21(上日18为21);恒指成份股今日28只股份上升,下跌股份19只,升跌比率为56比38(上日为36比54);大市今日录沽空161.27亿元,占可沽空股份成交868.72亿元的18.565%(上日15.724%)。
汇控(00005.HK)今日股价抽高3.2%收32.25元,恒生(00011.HK)股价弹高5.6%收121.7元,而渣打(02888.HK)及中银(02388.HK)股价各涨2.1%及2.6%。汇控将於下周二(27日)公布今年第三季度业绩,本网综合4间券商预测,汇控今年第三季列帐基准除税前溢利料介乎17.65亿美元至24.19亿美元,较去年同期48.37亿美元,按年减少50%至64%,中位数19.485亿美元,按年下滑60%。市场将关注汇控将公布第三季业绩拨备会否见顶、管理层对重组业务步伐及最新营运指引(包括派息),留意会否进一步出售业务及减省成本的计划。
此外,汇丰中国早前在微信公众号发文指,针对汇控主席杜嘉祺早前在上海市市长国际企业家谘询视频会议上发言,中国驻英国大使刘晓明在社交媒体上表示,中国持续深化改革开放、不断优化营商环境,将为包括汇丰在内的全球企业提供更多机遇。
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