電氣設備行業點評：特斯拉20Q3財報業績再超預期,盈利能力大幅提上,全年維持50萬輛目標，維持“增持”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
投資要點
特斯拉業績再創新高，同環比翻番以上，好於預期。特斯拉20Q3營收87.71億美元，同比大增39%，環比增45%，好於市場預期83.6億美元。GAAP準則下淨利潤為3.31億美元，去年同期為1.43億美元，同比增長131%，連續第5個季度實現盈利，環比大增218%；非GAAP準則下淨利潤8.74億美元，同比增長156%，環比增長94%。隨着股價和公司業績的提升，股權激勵費用大幅提升至5.43億美元，營業利潤率達9.2%創新高，同環比+5.1pct/+3.8pct，其中3.97億美元的積分收入和約1000萬美元的FSD遞延收入一定程度上抵消了股權激勵費用的影響。
自由現金流創新高，在手現金145.31億美元，同增172%：20Q3經營性現金流24億美元，創新高，同環比+217%/+149%；資本開支為10.05億美元，同比+161%，環比+84%，投資主要用於上海、柏林、德州三地的產線建設。20Q3自由現金流13.95億美元，同比大增276%，疫情影響減弱後，相比Q2環比增長234%。受特斯拉Q3籌資49.7億美元和自由現金流大幅增長拉動，在手現金及等價物增加至145.31億美元，同比+172%，環比+69%。特斯拉將在三大洲同時開展三個超級工廠的建設，公司上調21和22年新增資本開支預期20-25億美元，資金需求較大，但目前在手現金足以滿足產能擴張的需求。
產能利用率提升+本地化交付，汽車業務毛利率再創新高：汽車業務20Q3收入76.1億美元，其中汽車銷售73.5億美元，同環比大增43%/50%，受益於北美及中國基地產能利用率提升（疫情影響減弱）及本地化交付（從去年50%提升至當前70%），毛利率提升至27%，同環比+5.24pct/+2.65pct，扣除積分收入影響後（收入4億美元，同環比+196%/-7%），毛利率22.85%，同比提升2.05pct，環比大幅提升5.7pct；汽車租賃2.7億美元，同比+20%，環比微增。儲能業務收入5.8億美元，同比+48%，環比+57%；受降價影響（屋頂光伏降價至1.49美元/瓦），毛利率3.6%，同比下滑18.26pct，環比下降2.05pct。服務相關業務收入（售後車輛服務等業務）5.81億美元，同比+6%，環比+19.3%；毛利率-10.8%，同環比比改善明顯。
在手訂單維持高位，資金運營效率提升。Q3客户定金為7.08億美元，環比基本持平，維持高位，後續需求釋放有保證。公司營運效率提升，Q3應付賬款週轉天數（DPO）高於應收賬款週轉天數（DSO），下游佔款提升，進一步改善公司現金流情況。
投資建議：特斯拉交付量及業績持續超預期，堅定看好特斯拉產業鏈及各環節龍頭，中游首推寧德時代、璞泰來、科達利、新宙邦、恩捷股份、天賜材料、當升科技，關注億緯鋰能、比亞迪、天奈科技、星源材質、多氟多等；核心零部件宏發股份、匯川技術、三花智控；上游資源華友鈷業、天齊鋰業，關注贛鋒鋰業。
風險提示：政策支持及銷量不及預期。
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