《季绩前瞻》券商料汇控(00005.HK)上季税前溢利最多跌60% 关注重组及业务指引(更新)
汇丰控股(00005.HK)今年以来股价累挫逾46%，受新冠疫情冲击全球经济、市场担心中美关系恶化下，集团或被卷入两国博弈漩涡、忧中国未来可能将汇控列入「不可靠实体清单」，集团於9月下旬曾失守28元「世纪供股价」，近日股价略回稳处近32元水平。市场将关注公司将公布第三季业绩拨备会否见顶、管理层对重组业务步伐及最新营运指引，留意会否进一步出售业务及减省成本的计划。
汇控将於下周二(27日)公布今年第三季度业绩，本网综合4间券商预测，汇控今年第三季列帐基准除税前溢利料介乎17.65亿美元至24.19亿美元，较去年同期48.37亿美元，按年减少50%至64%，中位数19.485亿美元，按年下滑60%。综合3间券商预测汇控今年第三季经调整除税前溢利料介乎24.38至29.19亿美元，较2019年第三季53.48亿美元，按年下跌45.4%至54.4%。
综合4间券商预测，汇控今年第三季列账基准信贷损失及其他减值准备介乎16.38亿至24.58亿美元，较2019年第三季8.83亿美元，按年上升86%至1.78倍，中位数23.47亿美元，按年升1.66倍。
【注重组步伐 候最新指引】
摩根士丹利本月初发表报告，料汇控第三季列帐基准除税前利润按年跌63.5%至17.65亿美元，估计其经调整除税前溢利按年下滑近56%至21.22亿美元，料总体收入按年跌10.5%，估计净利息收入按年增长18.5%至61.68亿元(料净息差1.61%)，料期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备按年升1.68倍至23.68亿美元，估计经调整有形股本回报率欸.3%，按年跌614个基点(按季跌25个基点)
摩根大通估计，汇控今年第三季列帐基准除税前利润21.22亿美元按年跌56.1%，料经调整除税前溢利33.42亿美元按年跌近38%。该行料汇控旗下香港业务经营环境持续转差，本港银行同业拆息於第三季续下跌，净息差压力持续。
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本网综合4间券商预测，汇控今年第三季列帐基准除税前溢利料介乎17.65亿美元至24.19亿美元，较去年同期48.37亿美元，按年减少50%至64%，中位数19.485亿美元，按年下滑60%。
券商│今年第三季列帐基准除税前利润预测│按年变幅
高盛│24.19亿美元│-50%
摩根大通│21.22亿美元│-56.1%
美银证券│17.75亿美元│-63.3%
摩根士丹利│17.65亿美元│-63.5%
按汇控2019年第三度列帐基准除税前溢利48.37亿美元计算
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本网综合3间券商预测，汇控今年第三季经调整除税前溢利料介乎24.38亿至29.19亿美元，较2019年第三季53.48亿美元，按年下跌45.4%至54.4%。
券商│今年第三季经调整除税前溢利预测│按年变幅
高盛│29.19亿美元│-45.4%
摩根大通│33.42亿美元│-37.5%
摩根士丹利│24.38亿美元│-54.4%
按汇控2019年第三度经调整除税前溢利53.48亿美元计算
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综合4间券商预测，汇控今年第三季列账基准信贷损失及其他减值准备介乎16.38亿至24.58亿美元，较2019年第三季8.83亿美元，按年上升86%至1.78倍，中位数23.47亿美元，按年升1.66倍。
券商│今年第三季列账基准信贷损失及其他减值准备│按年变幅
高盛│16.38亿美元│+85.5%
美银证券│23.26亿美元│+163%
摩根士丹利│23.68亿美元│+168%
摩根大通│24.58亿美元│+178%
按汇控2019年第三度列账基准信贷损失及其他减值准备8.83亿美元计
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