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港股市场第四季度展望:柳暗花明 还是 砥砺前行?
格隆汇 10-22 15:08

机构:中泰证券

第四季影响资产价格的三大因素先后次序为:政治 > 经济 > 疫情。

环球风险资产于9月通过波动调整去释放压力,经济基本面仍然向好,全球资金充裕。

恒指9月的下跌,主要受大盘股盈利下调拖累,尤其是金融及传统行业,好在其估值已在较低位置,进一步下滑空间不大。另一方面,科技、消费及医药等前期领涨标的本轮调整主要是释放估值压力,盈利预期则仍然比较稳定,甚至小幅上调。

展望四季度,美联储维持宽松政策但暂时缺乏更积极的方向,流动性推升估值动力减弱,企业盈利成推高股价的动力;国内货币和财政政策因经济复苏势态回稳而进一步回归正常化。美国大选的临近,海外不确定性增加,市场波动有所扩大。恒指继续维持区间震荡,根据盈利收益率差模型给予恒指四季度基本目标价为24,889点,对应21年10.94倍PE,以24,500点为交易中枢,行业交易机会为主。

前期领涨的科技类及生物医药股票基本面向好趋势未变,可继续逢低布局。

内循环下重点关注消费内需股,受益国内经济持续复苏,同时受海外疫情负面影响较小,有修复空间。

关注受益“十四五”产业如新能源汽车、光伏及进口替代的医疗机械。

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