永達汽車(03669.HK)：新車銷量展韌性，營收創三季度新高，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司三季度新車銷量提振，延續二季度增長勢頭。根據公司 3Q20 主要財務數據公告，3Q20/9M20 新車銷量為 58,984/140,958 輛，同比增長 30.8%/0.8%。公司豪華及超豪華品牌 3Q20/9M20 新車銷量為38,615/96,749 輛，同比增長 32.3%/7.3%，佔公司 3Q20/9M20 總新車銷量的 65.5%/68.8%。 ? 3Q20 綜合收入增幅大，季度單車銷售價格同比增長。Q3 公司綜合收入增長至 198.1 億元，同比增長 31.5%。乘用車銷售收入為 165.8 億元，同比增長 34.7%。3Q20 公司新車銷售 ASP 提升至 28 萬元，同比增長約 3.0%，環比 2Q20 微降 0.7%。Q3 售後服務/金融和保險代理服務收入分別為 27.4/3.3 億元，分別較去年同期增長 20.8%/30.3%。
三季度綜合毛利提升，毛利率略有下降。公司 3Q20 綜合毛利為 20.9億元，同比增長 24.9%；毛利率同比下降 0.6pct 至 10.5%；3Q20 公司歸母淨利潤為 4.8 億元，同比增長 41.2%。
預計公司持續受惠於豪華車型強勁銷量，維持“買入”評級。根據寶馬車型計劃，華晨寶馬下半年推出 5 系小改款以及純電動 iX3；預計寶馬集團於 2021 年繼續推出純電動車型 i4 和 iNEXT。預期新車型將帶動品牌銷量持續強勁走勢，我們預計 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為0.94/1.12/1.35 人民幣元/股。綜合考慮可比公司估值以及公司業務結構自身特點,我們給予公司合理估值 13 倍 2020E P/E，對應合理價值為 13.86 港元/股（匯率計算：港元兑人民幣：1:0.882），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。汽車銷售、售後業務和汽車金融業務發展不及預期，消費需求不足導致汽車銷售下滑，公共衞生事件對業務運營產生不利影響。
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