野村:內地壽險復甦緩慢 惟保費增長最壞時間已結束
野村發表研究報告指,由於業務重心轉移至年初銷售,該行覆蓋的內地壽險公司復甦非常緩慢。儘管如此,野村認為保費增長最壞時期可能已經結束。對於覆蓋的產險公司,這些公司的全面恢復趨勢自新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情後,一直持續至9月份。
野村表示,就所覆蓋的個人壽險企業,新華保險(1336.HK)和中國人壽(2628.HK)在9月份的保費增長放緩,分別為5%和負6%,增幅都較8月份低,主要由於業務重心轉移至年初銷售。雖然增長放緩,但新華及國壽憑着其進取的業務策略及代理團隊的擴張,令其首9個月的保費增長率分別為25%和9%。中國平安(2318.HK)和中國太保(2601.HK)則仍面臨壓力。鑑於所有上市壽險公司的目標都是在年初銷售中,推動儲蓄型保險產品的銷售,預計第三季的疲弱增長趨勢將在今年餘下時間持續,而明年初的銷售將有強勁反彈。
該行指,在研究的產險企業中,中國太保以9月份的22%保費收入增長領先市場,平保和中國財險(2328.HK)的增長就相對較慢。同時,該行預期,在汽車保險改革全面啟動後,汽車保費收入增長將見放緩。
該行又指,由於平保的高質量保險業務,維持公司作為長期核心股份,並認為如果利率反彈,新華保險、中國太平(0966.HK)和國壽將有更好表現。
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