植耀輝: 技術突破利前景 濰柴(02338.HK)可看高一線
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，美國總統大選已進入白熱化階段，誰人最終能問鼎總統寶座，似乎到正式投票日前仍難有結果，原先大熱之拜登受其兒子電郵醜聞影響，領先優勢開始收窄，以特朗普個性豈有不追打之理?然而歐美疫情至今仍然失控，環球經濟何時才能復甦似乎亦遙遙無期。當然中國第三季GDP出現反彈，某程度上反映內地經濟狀況已率先復甦，只是中美關係及地緣政治情況變得複雜，在大選之前，建議大家還是採取靜觀其變策略較佳。至於恆指24,600點之上阻力似不輕，暫維持早前窄幅上落格局看法不變。
雖然大市繼續呈上落市格局，不過部分板塊近期表現卻相當不濟，當中物管股走勢之差便令捧場客相當失望，昨日雖見反彈，但幅度亦相當有限。行業是否有不利消息執筆之時仍未發掘到，惟估值遭下調則可能是主要原因之一，何況現時可選擇之物管股較以往不論數目或種類皆令投資者「眼花撩亂」，未來又有多間物管股排隊登場，包括已開始招股之合景悠活(03913.HK)以及世茂服務(00873.HK)，另外恆大(03333.HK)及融創(01918.HK)等亦即將分拆旗下物管公司上市。雖然筆者對相關行業前景看法仍正面，只是在短期缺乏利好消息支持下，預期股價表現仍會較失色，建議暫繼續觀望較佳。
但也有板塊值得留意，重卡相關股份便是其中之一。內地重卡市場最新公布之銷售再有驚喜，9月國內重卡銷量再創單月新高，達到13.6萬輛，同比增長62.7%，環比亦升4.6%，同時今年前9個月銷量，已超過去年全年之117.4萬輛，達到121.9萬輛。至於銷售強勁原因，一大因素在於「國三」重卡替換。有研究機構便預期，今年淘汰「國三」重卡之數量便達到120-130萬輛，預期2021年還會有多達100萬輛。除此以外，國道、省道超載治理繼續，以及基建工程高峰後移等亦是主要原因。這亦可解釋為何重汽(03808.HK)及濰柴動力(02338.HK)等股價仍相對較強勢。
當中尤以濰柴前景最值得看高一線。濰柴為內地柴油發動機主要供應商之一，於內地發動機市佔率約三成。近年亦積極研發新技術。集團早前便公布，實現了將柴油機熱效率由46%級別提升至50%，並已達到「國六」(更高環保要求)及歐IV之排放要求。由於該新技術已基本達到量產要求，預期有望進一步提升商用車發動機市場市佔率。其股價近期亦較強勢，而集團亦將於本月底公布第三季業績，相信表現亦會相當不俗，建議16元以下可作中線吸納，首個目標為前高位18元附近。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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