瑞银降今年内地GDP增长预测至2.1% 政策宽松势头或见顶
国家统计局公布三季度GDP同比增速为4.9%,略低於市场预期,但9月的多项资料好於市场预期,四季度经济有望继续回暖。瑞银投资银行研究部资深中国经济学家钟挥认为10月同业存单到期量较大(从9月的1.63万亿元人民币(下同)上升至1.9万亿元),银行存单再融资压力可能是推动收益率上行的因素,这也反映出银行负债端的中长期资金仍然紧张;10月逢缴税大月,对银行体系的资金面将构成一定压力。四季度整体来看,估计央行不会收紧货币政策,还会继续灵活运用短期工具来调节流动性。
而瑞银中国利率市场分析师夏愔愔则指,10月19日中国统计局资料公布後,债市收益率出现小幅下行,认为对债市来说,市场已经对资料继续回暖有所预期,未来经济环比动能见顶可能令收益率进一步上升空间有限。
瑞银亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛则认为三季度GDP按年实际增速反弹至4.9%,略低於市场预期;估算的季调後GDP环比折年增长率由二季度的59%大幅放缓至13%。而四季度经济有望继续回暖,预测今年全年GDP实际增速小幅下调至2.1%。鉴於二、三季度经济的反弹较为强劲,认为国内的政策宽松势头可能已经见顶;但考虑到未来的不确定性犹存,政策也应不会很快开始收紧。
另外,瑞银投资研究部大中华消费品行业主管彭燕燕指出,6月时的消费者调查结果表明新冠疫情使得乳制品需求强於预期。鉴於需求强劲且全球奶粉价格正常化,预计从2020年下半年开始中国乳制品行业价格将重拾上涨态势,预计2020至2022年中国原奶价格将上涨约20%至每公斤4元。
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