安踏體育(02020.HK)：Q3持續加速增長，顯龍頭強大品牌力，維持"優於大市"評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優於大市
投資要點：
公司發佈 2020Q3 運營數據表現。2020Q3 安踏主品牌低單位數正增長，Fila實現 20%-25%增長，其他品牌（Descente/Kolon Sport/Sprandi/Kingkow）實現 50-55%正增長。
主品牌 Q3 增速首次回正，Fila 延續高增長。安踏主品牌與 FilaQ3 零售增速均顯逐季顯著改善趨勢，其中，安踏 Q1-Q3 零售增速分別為同比下滑20%-25%/低單位數負增長/單位數正增長，Fila 則為中單位數負增長/10%-20%低段增長/20%-25%增長，我們認為電商高增和學生穩定復學帶來的兒童系列增長均為重要動力。淘數據顯示，安踏和 FilaQ3 天貓全網同比增速分別為 41%、80%。
Descente、KolonSport 步入快速成長通道。以 Descente 和 Kolon Sport為核心的其他品牌 Q2（25%-30%+）和 Q3（50%-55%）均實現高速增長，我們認為作為在中國仍處成長階段的兩大品牌（Descente2016 年與公司成立合資公司，Kolon2017 年被收購），其在疫情之下回暖強勁且快速發展的原因主要為①兩大品牌已積累悠久品牌文化和專業性口碑（Descente 和 Kolon 分別已創立 85、47 年），②安踏運用其豐富渠道和品牌運營經驗，通過着重優越地段開設門店，完整產品線使其更為符合中國消費者需求。
國慶復甦強勁，Q4 冷冬利好冬季產品銷售。淘數據顯示，國慶期間（10/1-10/7），安踏和 Fila 天貓全網銷售分別同比增 95%、586%，我們認為主要由於①疫情控制更為穩定，帶動假期出行消費進一步提振，②國慶期間平均氣温降幅度明顯，提升消費者換季服飾需求。今年北京 9/15 入秋，是2016 年以來最早，上海 10/4 入秋，是 2012 年以來最早，同時 2021 農曆新年晚於去年同期，我們認為節前消費時段長，亦有利於公司冬季產品的銷售。
盈利預測與估值。我們認為安踏主品牌龍頭地位穩定，童裝業務快速發展， Fila 品牌影響力持續提升，以及我們預計 AmerSports2020H2 冬裝業務帶來的正面貢獻，我們預計公司2020/2021 年收入361.4/454.8 億元，同比增6.5%/25.8%，淨利潤 53.6/72.5 億元，同比增 0.3%/35.3%，我們給予 2021 年 PE 估值區間 33-35X，按照 1 港元=0.88 元人民幣換算，對應合理價值區間 100.50-106.59 港元/股，維持“優於大市”評級。
風險提示。零售環境疲軟，新品牌收購整合不達預期，店鋪拓展進程放緩等。
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