玖龍紙業(02689.HK):在盈利上升週期,維持“買入”評級
機構:元大證券
評級:買入
評級調升至買進:本中心預計玖龍紙業 2021 財年每股收益將同比增長 30.3%,系由於銷量增加和產品價格上漲。玖龍紙業目前股價相當於 7.1 倍 2021 財年預估市盈率,低於過去 10 年市盈率平均水準(7.6 倍)。因此,鑑於玖龍紙業 2020-23 財年預估每股收益複合年增長率達 18.7%,本中心認為其目前估值具有吸引力。
產品漲價是利好的。根據市場資料,玖龍紙業紙板、塗層雙面板和瓦楞原紙產品價格自今年 7 月初分別同比上漲 10%、7%和 11%。 這三種產品銷售額佔玖龍紙業 2020 財年銷售總額的 87%。玖龍紙業擁有廣泛的國內再生紙收集網路和紙漿供應,將不會受到中國政府 2021 年禁止進口再生紙的重大影響。
由於經濟逐步復甦以及產能新增,銷量可能會繼續增長:考慮到2021 財年上半年共有 110 萬噸/年產能(佔 2020 財年產能的7%)的紙板投入商業生產,我們假設紙板 2021 財年銷量將同比增長 8%至 1650 萬噸/年產能(而非之前預測的 1500 萬噸/年)。
收益調整以反映銷售和利潤率假設變化:我們將 2021/22 財年每股收益預測上調 4%/5%。因此,本中心將目標價從先前的 9.90 港元上修至 12.20 港元。調整後目標價系依據現金流量折現評價法(加權平均資本成本 10.2%)和本中心市盈率估值(9.6 倍,過去10 年平均市盈率加 1 個標準差),取其平均推得。根據調整後的目標價,玖龍紙業股價相當於 9.2 倍/8.0 倍 2021/22 財年預估市盈率。
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