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香港交易所(00388.HK):新魚帶來活水,港交所成長性可期, 維持“買入”評級,目標價432.2港元
格隆匯 10-19 15:54

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:432.2港元

 維持“買入”評級,目標價432.2港元:2020-2022年,我們預測公司歸屬股東淨利潤分別同比增長14.4%、19.7%和17.1%。 公司目標價對應PE水平分別為50、42和36倍,建議投資者積極關注。

發行制度改革成果顯著,中美新形勢下吸引大量中概公司一二次上市:

PO新規實行兩年多來,港交所IPO規模保持世界領先,結構上新經濟公司首發募資額佔比從15.2%(2016年)上升至 50%,且中國香港已成為全球第二大生物科技融資中心。

中國香港市場“一國兩制、貫通中西”差異化優勢沒有改變,港股市場將首先受益於中概股迴歸:1)上市流程和市 場環境與美股市場更相似,2)在外資行業准入、匯兑等方面更為寬鬆靈活,3)有利於企業後續對接國際市場,4) 同股不同權企業納入港股通,未來可同時對接內地和海外資本。未來三年預計將迎來約270-540億美元的二次上市募 資規模和每年50億美元原擬赴美首次上市規模。

優質上市公司底層資產提振市場成交活躍度,2020年前8月日均成交額同比增長超過50%:

新經濟公司和中概股自身交投活躍的屬性提振港股市場成交:日均成交額TOP10公司中,新經濟公司佔比從2018年的 9%上升到2020年前8月的25%;8月三隻迴歸中概股合計日均成交額達到83億港元,佔比達到8%。

新經濟公司不斷吸引內地資金,內地高換手率風格向港滲透:南下資金日均成交額佔比持續創新高,前8月佔比達 23%。

互聯互通持續壯大且內涵更為豐富。滬深港通保持高增長,北向仍然是外資進入內地主要渠道,陸股通佔外資持股超70%; 南下資金持股市值佔比近20%。債券通開通3週年,已成為外資增持人民幣債券的重要渠道,持有債券市值CAGR達42%。隨 商品通、ETF通、衍生品通的探索與建立,互聯互通內涵將愈加豐富。

與MSCI深化合作助力香港成為國際風險管理中心。現貨市場和互聯互通的蓬勃發展推動投資者通過衍生品對衝風險的需求 增加。2020年港交所與MSCI合作推出亞洲及新興市場系列產品,A股指數期貨產品有望於近期落地,這些產品預計將在未 來3-5年大幅提升港交所衍生品成交,推動香港成為國際風險管理中心。

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