《大行报告》中金料内险股第三季新业务价值按年跌14% 料净利润下降2%
中金发表报告,预计中资保险行业今年第三季新业务价值按年下降14%,首九个月按年下降18%,符合市场预期。至於第三季净利润预期按年下降2%,首九个月按年下降16%,亦符合市场预期。
该行表示,预计行业新业务价值按年下降14%。尽管疫情缓和使代理人展业逐渐恢复,但认为第三季行业新业务价值较上半年改善幅度有限,主要由於疫情对居民收入预期产生负面影响,进而导致需求端短期有所收缩;行业重回严格考核和主动清虚导致代理人规模收缩。今年上半年处於新冠疫情的特殊时期,行业暂时放松了代理人考核标准,因此低产能代理人并未被淘汰。但随着疫情缓和,行业重回严格考核、部分公司主动清虚,导致行业代理人规模收缩,预计今年9月上市公司代理人合计规模环比年初有个位数下降。另外,部分公司如中国人寿(02628.HK)将更多精力转向明年开门红,一定程度上影响了第三季销售。
中金预计,中国平安(02318.HK)、中国太保(02601.HK)在第三季新业务价值按年下降各25%,与上半年下降的幅度相似。另外预计国寿第三季新业务价值按年下降,从而拖动首九个月新业务价值按年增速放缓至4%,但这主要由於国寿全年目标完成情况较好、并将更多精力转向明年开门红,公司实际增长能力仍领先行业。至於新华保险(01336.HK)、中国太平(00966.HK)第三季新业务价值增速改善,其中太平按年大幅增长。
该行又预计行业第三季净利润按年下降2%,较上半年按年下降21%改善。其中正面因素为上半年一次性税收返还的影响将在第三季出清,负面因素为准备金补提压力持续,加上去年第三季总投资收益较好导致较高基数。中金预计,第三季平安集团营运利润按年持平,其中由於新业务持续疲软和去年上半年保险业务税收政策变化对税後经营利润增速的一次性帮助从今年第二季开始不再存在,预计寿险业务营运利润保持较低增速。至於财险业务营运利润增速较上半有所改善。
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