《大行報告》中金料內險股第三季新業務價值按年跌14% 料淨利潤下降2%
中金發表報告,預計中資保險行業今年第三季新業務價值按年下降14%,首九個月按年下降18%,符合市場預期。至於第三季淨利潤預期按年下降2%,首九個月按年下降16%,亦符合市場預期。
該行表示,預計行業新業務價值按年下降14%。儘管疫情緩和使代理人展業逐漸恢復,但認為第三季行業新業務價值較上半年改善幅度有限,主要由於疫情對居民收入預期產生負面影響,進而導致需求端短期有所收縮;行業重回嚴格考核和主動清虛導致代理人規模收縮。今年上半年處於新冠疫情的特殊時期,行業暫時放鬆了代理人考核標準,因此低產能代理人並未被淘汰。但隨著疫情緩和,行業重回嚴格考核、部分公司主動清虛,導致行業代理人規模收縮,預計今年9月上市公司代理人合計規模環比年初有個位數下降。另外,部分公司如中國人壽(02628.HK)將更多精力轉向明年開門紅,一定程度上影響了第三季銷售。
中金預計,中國平安(02318.HK)、中國太保(02601.HK)在第三季新業務價值按年下降各25%,與上半年下降的幅度相似。另外預計國壽第三季新業務價值按年下降,從而拖動首九個月新業務價值按年增速放緩至4%,但這主要由於國壽全年目標完成情況較好、並將更多精力轉向明年開門紅,公司實際增長能力仍領先行業。至於新華保險(01336.HK)、中國太平(00966.HK)第三季新業務價值增速改善,其中太平按年大幅增長。
該行又預計行業第三季淨利潤按年下降2%,較上半年按年下降21%改善。其中正面因素為上半年一次性稅收返還的影響將在第三季出清,負面因素為準備金補提壓力持續,加上去年第三季總投資收益較好導致較高基數。中金預計,第三季平安集團營運利潤按年持平,其中由於新業務持續疲軟和去年上半年保險業務稅收政策變化對稅後經營利潤增速的一次性幫助從今年第二季開始不再存在,預計壽險業務營運利潤保持較低增速。至於財險業務營運利潤增速較上半有所改善。
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