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鍾南山稱板藍根對新冠有效,白雲山漲停封板!
格隆匯 10-16 16:58

今天,一隻500億醫藥白馬股火了。A股白雲山早盤高開高走,午後漲停封板。截至收盤,成交逾16億元人民幣,主力資金淨流入2.26億元。股價現報34.2元,最新總市值555.7億元。

3.png數據來源:同花順 

港股白雲山亦漲勢強勁,截至收盤大漲逾13%,報21.75港元,全天成交2.4億港元,最新總市值353.6億港元。以最高點計算,白雲山AH股市值合計漲近100億元。

白雲山的大漲源自今早一條新聞。有報道稱,鍾南山院士在“粵澳呼吸道病原體新藥聯合研究中心”第四次理事會上透露,研究團隊開展一系列體外研究發現,白雲山複方板藍根顆粒對新冠病毒有效。

消息發酵後,白雲山股價迅速拉昇,在港A兩市皆創8月下旬以來新高。觀察白雲山股價走勢可以發現,自8月初以來,港股白雲山累跌逾20%A股累跌18%。白雲山股價持續陰跌,主要原因在於其2020年半年報業績並不理想。

數據顯示,公司上半年營收304.7億元,同比下降8.6%;淨利潤17.64億元,同比下降逾30%。具體業務來講,上半年大南藥板塊收入56億,同比減少17%;大商業板塊收入201.8億,同比下降1.68%;大健康板塊實現收入45.01億元,同比下降23.11%

1.png數據來源:白雲山2020年半年報 

利潤大幅下降的原因,一方面是受新冠疫情的影響,公司大商業板塊的物流配送受限、大南藥板塊的藥品終端需求下降。導致公司銷售收入下降,生產成本上升;另外,全資子公司王老吉是大健康板塊核心,其相關產品需求因疫情受壓,收到的政府補助也同比減少。導致上半年淨利潤為8.41億元,同比減少25%

提到白雲山,首先想到的除了王老吉,就是它最出名的產品金戈。金戈是大南藥板塊的重要利潤支撐,作為國內首個“偉哥”仿製藥,一直是被白雲山的“現金奶牛”。2017-2019年,金戈毛利率分別達92.54%87.31%90.65%。但今年上半年大南藥板塊毛利率卻持續下滑,同比減少4.18個百分點至40.63%

820日公佈的全國第三批國家組織藥品集中採購開標中,白雲山的金戈出局。而齊魯製藥“千威”以約2.08/片的價格獨家中標,降價幅度達92%。大幅下降的中標價造成差價空間收窄,對金戈造成了不小影響。

短期來看,板藍根產品對新冠病毒有效的消息對白雲山股價有一定提振作用。今日的大漲行情其實有些似曾相識。今年2月,一則鍾南山團隊擬定新冠肺炎預防涼茶處方,一線醫護人員服用後身體狀況一致反應良好的消息爆出後,白雲山A股一度漲超5%H股大漲逾7%

長期邏輯來看,一方面,白雲山擬分拆廣州醫藥在港上市。2019年和2020年上半年,廣州醫藥的營收分別是411.3億元、196.62億元,淨利潤3.4億元、1.71億元。

白雲山在2018年收購廣州醫藥後增收不增利,反而因為銷售費用和財務費用的增加使整體毛利率大幅下降。廣藥財務報表獨立披露之後,將還原白雲山大健康和大南藥兩個板塊的真實盈利情況,進而體現整個公司的經營能力和經營指標,有可能對公司在估值方面產生利好。

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另一方面,白雲山板藍根、白雲山複方板藍根科研成果計劃在澳門產業化,該項目由鍾南山院士領導團隊進行研究。其產品有可能成為爆款,一旦得到市場認可,將使公司業績迎來巨大成長空間。

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