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《大行報告》匯豐研究:內地信貸增長較快 行業趨勢最利好農行及郵儲銀行
阿思達克 10-16 14:55
匯豐研究發表報告,指出內銀信貸增長相對較快,9月全行業信貸按月增長1.1%,按年增12.8%。根據目前的速度,若第四季的增長速度與去年同期相若,相信信貸增長可在今年維持12.8%。該行又指,社會融資規模存量按年增長13.5%,高於市場預期,主要是得益於信貸及債券增長。

該行相信,當局仍會繼續採取溫和寬鬆立場,直至市場對宏觀經濟持續復甦的信心增加,以及在明年首季尾之前不良貸款的生成仍受控。同時,相信決策者會通過選擇性收緊來平衡市場。

另外,存款競爭或在第四季度逐步開始,很可能是在定期存款方面,而這發展將有助於擁有更強存款特許經營權的銀行,例如農業銀行(01288.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)。該行指,內銀存款按年增長0.8%,增速較信貸增長為慢。人民幣貸存比率按年增加0.3個百分點,今年來增0.9個百分點至80.2%。該行提到,人行在5月份之前未有進一步安排有針對性的降準,貸款基礎利率自4月20日起保持穩定,最新的7天平均回購利率自5月的低位增加87個基點至最新的約2.2%。

該行維持對內地銀行溫和正面的態度,由於資產質量不確定,因此避免採取進取的樂觀看法。相信最新的發展情況較利好農行及郵儲行,目標價分別為3.9元及4元,投資評級均為「買入」。

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