银行9月金融数据点评：社融超预期多增，M2增速提升，给予“强于大市”评级
机构：中银国际
评级：强于大市
央行公布 9 月金融数据，9 月新增人民币贷款（包括非银贷款）1.9 万亿，同比多增 2116 亿元。人民币贷款余额同比增速与 8 月持平为 13%。9 月新增社融 3.48 万亿，同比多增 9658 亿，社融余额同比增 13.5%，增速较 8月提升 0.2 个百分点。M2 同比增 10.9%，增速较 8 月提升 0.5 个百分点。
9 月信贷同比多增，居民信贷延续改善趋势
9 月信贷新增 1.9 万亿（包括非银贷款），符合我们之前预期，同比多增2116 亿。其中，居民信贷持续修复，新增 9607 亿，同比多增 2057 亿。虽然 9 月企业信贷新增规模（9458 亿）略低于去年同期（1.01 万亿），票据延续压降态势减少 2632 亿，我们认为反映了企业信贷需求改善情况且信贷额度有限情况下，银行通过压降票据来腾挪信贷额度。企业一般信贷中，中长期信贷积极投放，9 月新增 1.07 万亿，同比多增 5043 亿；企业短贷增 1274 亿，同比少增 1276 亿。展望 10 月，我们认为随着经济的逐步向好，银行信贷投放节奏更趋稳健，我们预计 10 月新增信贷规模为7000-8000 亿（vs2019 年 10 月 6613 亿）。
社融继续超预期多增，同比增速进一步提升
9 月社融超预期多增，新增 3.48 万亿，同比多增 9658 亿，社融余额同比增速较 8 月提升 0.2 个百分点至 13.5%。其中，政府债是带动社融增速提升的重要因素，9 月新增政府债 1.01 万亿，同比多增 6326 亿。9 月表外融资保持正增，未贴现承兑汇票、信托贷款和委托贷款三者合计新增 26亿，同比多增 1151 亿。企业债新增 1422 亿，同比少增 1009 亿，或与企业债发行成本上行相关。股票融资规模新增 1140 亿，同比多增 851 亿。
9 月存款同比多增，M2 增速提升
9 月新增人民币存款 1.58 万亿，同比多增 8607 亿。其中，企业和居民存款分别新增 1.94 万亿、1.01 万亿，分别同比多增 4004 亿、5201 亿；非银存款减少 3177 亿，但较去年同期少降 4993 亿。9 月财政资金加快投放，财政存款减少 8317 亿，同比多降 1291 亿。在信贷延续高增、财政资金加速投放情况下，9 月 M2 同比增速较 8 月提升 0.5 个百分点至 10.9%。M1增速较 8 月提升 0.1 个百分点至 8.1%，反映了企业经营活力仍处于改善通道中。
投资建议：
随着国内疫情防控得当以及经济形势的转好，实体经济经营活力改善。9 月信贷增量符合预期，政府债的高增带动社融增速进一步提升。经过前期调整，银行目前估值对应 2020 年为 0.75xPB，具备低估值、低持仓的特点，看好 4 季度板块绝对收益。个股方面，建议关注特色优质个股（如招商银行、宁波银行、平安银行等），以及基本面改善个股（如光大银行、杭州银行等）。
风险提示：经济下行导致资产质量恶化超预期。
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