《大行報告》大和:人行允宏觀槓桿率上升 信貸條件利內銀 看好建行等三股
大和發表報告表示,人民銀行近日公布9月份社會融資規模存量按年升13.5%,9月末人民幣貸款餘額按年升13%,該行亦指內地9月社會融資規增量3.48萬億人民幣、新增人民幣貸款增加1.9萬億人民幣,指兩數據均優於預期。
該行指,內地社會融資規模存量增長加快,同時人民幣貸款增長穩定,相信目前信貸環境對內銀股有利,同時相信可支持內地自身的經濟增長。
大和稱,人行在簡報中預計中國今年第三季經濟按年增速,可較第二季(按年升3.2%)有所加快,認為當前的信貸增長合理,並應允許宏觀槓桿率暫時上升。該行預計內地社會融資規模存量餘額增長將在今年第四季度達到近期高點,還估計今年第四季度貸款按年增速將保持在13%的水平。
該行表示,當前的國內信貸條件對內銀股有利,預示內地經濟增長趨勢,並推介建行(00939.HK)(予「買入」評級),因為其在四大銀行中的資產擴張較強,該行還看好中行(03988.HK)(予「跑贏大市」評級)和中信銀行(00998.HK)(予「買入」評級)的交易機會,指兩股2021年預測市賬率分別為0.34倍和0.26倍的超低水平。
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