银行行业月度报告：9月社融再超预期，融资需求仍保持高位，维持“同步大市”评级
机构：万联证券
评级：同步大市
事件：
2020 年 10 月 14 日，中国人民银行公布 2020 年 9 月金融统计数据。
投资要点：
9 月社融存量增速上升 0.2%至 13.5%:9 月社融新增 3.48 万亿元，同比多增 9658 亿元。9 月末社融规模存量为 280 万亿，存量同比增速 13.5%，较 8 月增速环比上升 0.2 个百分点。其中，政府债同比多增是主因。
9月居民信贷需求持续修复，企业中长期贷款继续放量：9 月新增贷款 1.9 万亿元，同比多增 2047 亿元，高于市场预期。自 7 月以来，政策持续收敛，压制信贷持续高增。此外，央行调查问卷显示三季度融资需求虽然有所回落，但是仍维持在较高水平。不过，过去两个月的数据显示，实体融资需求好于市场预期。考虑到银行信贷额度较为紧张，预计四季度信贷融资或持续回落。从结构上看，居民端贷款持续修复，居民信贷增加 9607 亿元，同比多增 2057 亿元。其中，短期贷款增加3394 亿元，同比多增 687 亿元，中长期贷款增加 6362 亿元，同比多增 1419 亿元。居民消费活动继续修复，同时，房地产销售持续反弹，拉动居民房贷增长。企业端，9 月新增中长期贷款延续高增，规模达到 10680 亿元，同比大幅多增 5043 亿元，预计基建配套贷款和制造业中长期贷款增长仍较快。而在政策收紧的背景下，企业票据融资继续减少，9 月减少 2632亿元，同比多减 4422 亿元。
展望：社融新增规模和增速再超市场预期，信贷结构持续向好，M1 增速走高，均有助于经济复苏的延续，在一定程度上缓解市场投资人对经济复苏持续性的担忧。不过，从领先指标看，9 月地产销售边际走弱。但是，M1 逆势上行，或反映经济内生增长动能仍在持续释放。10 月份政府债仍有近 7000 多亿的净发行额，预计对 10 月的社融形成支撑。而信托贷款方面，由于四季度是到期高峰，需要观察信托收缩对社融拖累的影响。综合来看，考虑到去年 10 月社融低基数，预计 10 月社融增速保持高位。
风险因素：疫情持续时间存在不确定性，或加大经济的短期波动，整体经济形势的变化会影响行业的整体表现。如果整体经济持续走弱，企业营收明显恶化，银行板块将出现业绩波动。行业监管超预期，可能会对板块业务的发展产生影响。
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