恆隆地產(00101.HK):租賃業務喜憂參半,下調評級至“中性”,目標價19.50港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:中性
目標價:19.50港元
恆隆地產(00101HK)的物業租賃收入貢獻同比下降0.5%至41.84億港元。中國內地的租賃收入同比增長8.9%至人民幣20.62億元,而香港的租賃業務受到的衝擊尤為嚴重,收入同比收縮5.3%至19.07億港元。中國內地和香港物業租賃業務的經營利潤率均錄得下降。核心淨利同比下降10.6%至19.93億港元,略低於我們的預期。恆隆地產維持中期每股派息17港仙。
新冠肺炎疫情和經濟衰退繼續給香港經濟蒙上一層陰影。而中國內地的零售額受益於新冠肺炎疫情後的復甦,但上海以外地區及上海本地的增長勢頭卻有所不同。恆隆地產於2020年上半年錄得重估虧損為45.26億港元,其中中國內地投資組合的虧損為23.07億港元,香港投資組合的虧損為23.35億港元。我們下調收入預測,以反映施工延遲以及較低的租金增長預期。
下調目標價至19.50港元,並將投資評級下調至“中性”。我們的目標價相當於較35.6港元的2020年每股估值有45%的折讓。考慮到恆隆地產當前的股價,我們認為上漲潛力有限。下調至“中性”評級。我們的目標價相當於21.1倍/18.7倍/14.4倍2020/2021/2022年核心市盈率和0.6倍/0.6倍/0.6倍2020/2021/2022年的市淨率。

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