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《大行報告》大和料阿里(09988.HK)第二財季收入升29% 維持目標價348元
阿思達克 10-14 14:28
大和發表的研究報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)料將於「雙十一」後公布第二財季業績,料公司整體收入將升29%至1,530億元人民幣(下同),而按非通用會計準則計算,EBITA利潤率將為26%。該行估計公司第二財季客戶管理及佣金收入將按年升20%,當中佣金收入按年增長料放慢至16%,而線上零售銷售亦將慢過預期。國家統計局早前公布7至8月內地線上零售銷售按年增長20%,該行料9月份增長將為17%至19%,而今年第三季內地線上零售銷售則會按年增19%至20%。

大和指出2021財年的首財季阿里旗下商戶在「618」的客戶管理上預算多於平常,以去除疫情後的庫存,該行估計第二財季相關收入將按季跌3%,但按年計增長仍達20%。另外品牌及商戶正落力準備「雙十一」銷售,相信會有更多商戶採用新的營銷工具做宣傳,並將帶動第三財季客戶管理收入按年增長22%,而阿里亦有花費在銷售及市場推廣等,以帶動新用戶增長及用戶參與。

該行認為阿里雲的盈利能力將逐步改善,管理層之前在投資者日表示阿里雲及菜鳥將在2021財年扭虧,該行認為阿里雲第四財季EBITA將錄正數,但全年計仍錄虧損,而到2022至2023財年相關業務則可錄低單位數的EBITA利潤率。該行將阿里2021至2023年度盈利預測削0.1%至1%,重申「買入」評級,目標價348元。

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