《大行报告》大和料阿里(09988.HK)第二财季收入升29% 维持目标价348元
大和发表的研究报告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)料将於「双十一」後公布第二财季业绩,料公司整体收入将升29%至1,530亿元人民币(下同),而按非通用会计准则计算,EBITA利润率将为26%。该行估计公司第二财季客户管理及佣金收入将按年升20%,当中佣金收入按年增长料放慢至16%,而线上零售销售亦将慢过预期。国家统计局早前公布7至8月内地线上零售销售按年增长20%,该行料9月份增长将为17%至19%,而今年第三季内地线上零售销售则会按年增19%至20%。
大和指出2021财年的首财季阿里旗下商户在「618」的客户管理上预算多於平常,以去除疫情後的库存,该行估计第二财季相关收入将按季跌3%,但按年计增长仍达20%。另外品牌及商户正落力准备「双十一」销售,相信会有更多商户采用新的营销工具做宣传,并将带动第三财季客户管理收入按年增长22%,而阿里亦有花费在销售及市场推广等,以带动新用户增长及用户参与。
该行认为阿里云的盈利能力将逐步改善,管理层之前在投资者日表示阿里云及菜鸟将在2021财年扭亏,该行认为阿里云第四财季EBITA将录正数,但全年计仍录亏损,而到2022至2023财年相关业务则可录低单位数的EBITA利润率。该行将阿里2021至2023年度盈利预测削0.1%至1%,重申「买入」评级,目标价348元。
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