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《大行報告》中金:內地車市需求穩健恢復 車股估值仍有提升空間
阿思達克 10-14 11:42
中金發表報告表示,新冠疫情後車市需求呈現穩健恢復,料中資汽車股板塊估值仍有提升空間,對於今年第四季度的投資邏輯進行梳理,主要分為四條主線:向新而行,品牌自信,產銷恢復,海外修復。該行推薦比亞迪(01211.HK)、理想汽車(LI.US)、長城汽車(02333.HK)、長安汽車(000625.SZ)、濰柴動力(02338.HK)、華域汽車(600741.SH)、 均勝電子(600699.SH)。

該行指低基數下,料內地汽車行業2021年有望錄得10%以上增長。目前看今年第三季度車市恢復符合預期,若第四季度仍能實現與歷史水平相當的環比走勢、經濟活動恢復常態,該行認為2020年需求回暖的邏輯仍然適用於2021年,同時還會疊加2020年低基數的影響。量化來看,該行假設2021年首購需求按年升5%,換購需求為保有量/28(更換基數與2019年持平),增購佔比與2019年持平,此推算內地2021年乘用車銷量為2,245萬輛,按年升14%。

近期結束的北京車展中,該行認為自主品牌新車型的推出速度和迭代速度更快,認為國內車市逐步進入存量市場階段,強產品力來自於快速迭代更新。

中金認為,在中國汽車工業近廿年的高速發展中,自主車企從學習跟隨轉向正向開發探索,當下進入了在部分領域實現超越的收獲階段。性價比不再是唯一優勢,自主品牌開始具備挑戰15萬至20萬元人民幣級別車型的能力。該行認為銷量表現強勁,A/H溢價有望縮窄,「歐拉」尚未體現估值的長城汽車(02333.HK)後續仍存在上行空間。該行預計伴隨定增落地,長安汽車業績將在第三季度開始兌現。

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