招商证券国际:虎牙与斗鱼合并 料腾讯(00700.HK)成最大受益者
招商证券国际发表报告表示,就腾讯(00700.HK)均有份投资的内地游戏直播平台虎牙和斗鱼於周一(12日)宣布正式敲定合并协议及计划,此次合并预计将於明年上半年完成,斗鱼将成为虎牙旗下的全资子公司,随後将从纳斯达克退市。该行指腾讯作为两家公司的投资方,腾讯在合并前分别持有虎牙50.4%的股份和斗鱼38%的股权。再加上腾讯向董荣杰购买的197万股虎牙ADS,以及向陈少杰购买的3,700万股斗鱼ADS後,该行预计腾讯将拥有合并後公司67.5%投票权和50.5%的股权。因此,腾讯在合并完成後会将该公司并表。
该行预计交易这将会为腾讯2021财年的收入和经调整净利润分别带来2.1%和1.2%的增益。该行认为虎牙和斗鱼此次合并对腾讯而言具有非常大的战略价值,在完善其电竞产业链战略布局的同时,也将在极具潜力的电竞内容分发上帮助公司建立主导地位,维持腾讯的买入评级,目标价652港元不变。
招商证券国际指,作为中国最大的两家游戏直播平台,虎牙和斗鱼在内地2019年占据了约75%的市场份额。在业务层面上,虎牙主要专注於手游相关(如《王者荣耀》及《和平精英》)的电竞赛事,并积累了更多中腰部主播,而斗鱼则更侧重端游相关(如《绝地求生》以及《DOTA2》)的电竞赛事,并吸引了更多头部主播。
在营运层面上,由於斗鱼在头部主播利润分成和营销方面更高的投入,其用户数在2020年第二季度前一直高於虎牙。今年二季度,虎牙的月活跃用户数首次超过斗鱼(1.65亿),达到1.69亿。与此同时,根据极光数据,截至今年6月双方的用户重合率仅为32%。合并以後,该行认为虎牙和斗鱼在内容和用户上能形成良好的互补,也能与腾讯的生态产生更多的协同效应。
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