《大行報告》中金上調長汽(02333.HK)目標價至15元 料第三季業績確定性強
中金發表報告表示,長城汽車(02333.HK)H股價對應2021年預測市盈率11.5倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級,維持2020年盈利預測不變。
該行指,基於對長汽新車型上市帶來銷量和利潤增長更樂觀的預期,該行上調對長汽2021年營收5.6%至1,165億人民幣,上調淨利潤14%至82億人民幣,疊加行業回暖估值中樞上移,該行調高對長汽H股目標價30%至15元,對應2021年市盈率15倍,料將有30%上行空間。
中金表示,9月長城皮卡、哈弗、歐拉銷量均實現按年及按月雙增長。長城皮卡9月銷售2.3萬輛,按年升67%、按月升9%,連續五個月月銷破2萬輛。哈弗9月銷售7.9萬輛按年升5%、按月升41%,其中,哈弗H6在新老款共同助力下月銷達到4萬輛,按年升28%,按月升47%,新款上市後並未影響老款銷售,表現超預期。
該行料長汽第三季度業績確定性仍強,料第三季度累計銷量達到28.56萬輛,其中皮卡銷量6.45萬輛,與第二季度基本持平,其他車型銷量為22.11萬輛。主要新車型於9月上市,僅貢獻1月銷量,第三季度非皮卡產品結構與二季度差別不大。該行按照皮卡單車淨利潤1萬元,其他車型單車淨利潤4,200元人民幣,保守估算第三季度長汽淨利潤在16億人民幣,而實際考慮到剩餘匯兌損失沖回,第三季度淨利潤有望達到18億至20億人民幣。
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