《大行报告》中金上调长汽(02333.HK)目标价至15元 料第三季业绩确定性强
中金发表报告表示,长城汽车(02333.HK)H股价对应2021年预测市盈率11.5倍,维持「跑赢行业」评级,维持2020年盈利预测不变。
该行指,基於对长汽新车型上市带来销量和利润增长更乐观的预期,该行上调对长汽2021年营收5.6%至1,165亿人民币,上调净利润14%至82亿人民币,叠加行业回暖估值中枢上移,该行调高对长汽H股目标价30%至15元,对应2021年市盈率15倍,料将有30%上行空间。
中金表示,9月长城皮卡、哈弗、欧拉销量均实现按年及按月双增长。长城皮卡9月销售2.3万辆,按年升67%、按月升9%,连续五个月月销破2万辆。哈弗9月销售7.9万辆按年升5%、按月升41%,其中,哈弗H6在新老款共同助力下月销达到4万辆,按年升28%,按月升47%,新款上市後并未影响老款销售,表现超预期。
该行料长汽第三季度业绩确定性仍强,料第三季度累计销量达到28.56万辆,其中皮卡销量6.45万辆,与第二季度基本持平,其他车型销量为22.11万辆。主要新车型於9月上市,仅贡献1月销量,第三季度非皮卡产品结构与二季度差别不大。该行按照皮卡单车净利润1万元,其他车型单车净利润4,200元人民币,保守估算第三季度长汽净利润在16亿人民币,而实际考虑到剩余汇兑损失冲回,第三季度净利润有望达到18亿至20亿人民币。
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