《大行報告》美銀證券:即使中國暫停採購澳洲煤炭 內地燃料煤價格升幅料仍有限
美銀證券發表研究報告,指中國國有公用企業及鋼鐵企業,接到中國海關通知,需暫停進口澳洲動力煤和焦煤,並於10月9日即時生效。
該行指,估算今年中國進口煤的數字限制在2.7至3億噸,即相等於今年第四季進口量按增27%,而本地動力煤價亦跌至每噸470元的低位。自今年第二季起,中國已經收緊進口煤政策,包括限制國內港口為總站的申報,以及延長清關時間,令7月至9月的數字下跌40%,在計算所有因素後,估算10-12月的每月進口數字為1,000萬至2,000萬噸,較9月的1,900萬噸為低。
該行又指,中國自澳洲進口煤數量於首八個月上升23%,達去年92%水平,並佔整體數字的32%,故相信限制與進口量增加有關,預期年底措施可以放寬,但因近期的政治風險等,市場人士未必願意接受期間的價格波動風險,或令本地和進口煤價出現較大價差。
該行表示,即使有上述限制,但認為本地煤價上升空間仍然有限,主因電廠的仍有存貨,本地產量增,預期短期內焦煤價格有支持,同時預期每1%的煤價升幅,將帶動神華(01088.HK)和中煤能源(01898.HK)盈利增長2%及3%。
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