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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調成渝高速(00107.HK)目標價至2元 評級「持有」
阿思達克 10-13 13:35
匯豐研究發表報告指出,四川成渝高速公路(00107.HK)今年已停止披露每月數據,但管理層看到第三季的流量有所復甦。不過,通行費收入的恢復仍落後於交通增長,這是因為電子收費系統(ETC)的5%折扣所致,因此該行預期第三季的通行費收入或按年持平。

截至今年5月份,ETC的滲透率約63%,預期此比率或會在第四季繼續增加,可能會拖低通行費收入增長。公司積極探索非收費業務,包括建設-移交項目(BT項目)建設、加油站、旅遊、文化及教育。然而,盈利貢獻仍有限,約佔10%。而建築業務的毛利率在上半年錄得下跌,因為建築材料及第三方項目的銷售減少。由於缺乏新項目,因此該行預期非道路收費業務的盈利貢獻仍低。

該行又指,在長遠增長而言,公司正在尋找母公司資產注入的機會,但商討估值的進展緩慢,認為公司的主要催化劑是未來幾年的主要資產擴展。根據市場消息,公司的主要資產成渝高速公路可能會從4條車道延伸至8條車道,投資額約為339億元人民幣。管理層指相關計劃仍在初步階段,未有具體細節。

匯豐研究維持公司「持有」投資評級,因為其道路費收入增長前景疲弱,而投資前景亦有不確定性。將公司2020財年的盈利預測下調78%,以反映上半年高於預期的稅務開支,2020至2021財年的道路費收入預測亦被下調,因為受到ETC折扣影響,目標價由原來的2.3元下調至2元。

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