《大行报告》麦格理降阿里(09988.HK)目标价至391元 评级「跑赢大市」
麦格理发表的研究报告指,从阿里(09988.HK)投资者关系人员了解近期业务及截至9月份季度的展望,总体而言料季节性因素将带动整体盈利走势。考虑到疫情下消费者更审慎,加上季节性推广等,估计消费者在截至6月底及12月底的季度消费将较多,而截至9月的季度消费则会暂缓。该行将公司目标价由403元降至391元,评级维持「跑赢大市」。
该行将公司商品交易额(GMV)增长预测由23%降至20%,以反映客户管理收入及佣金方面的比率,但估计受GMV组合转向新鲜产品的带动,料抽成将维持平稳,而公司自9月底的季度起将简化财务汇报,并将客户管理收入及佣金收入合并计算。
该行认为新零售方面的收入或现跌势,而早前对新零售方面的增长估算亦太高,现时相信本地服务包括饿了麽等收入增长或降至12%。麦格理仍未知道菜鸟云服务能否在9月底止季度扭亏,而在双十一前公司亦有一些营销开支。
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