中駿集團控股(01966.HK):雙軌道策略收穫成效,給予“買入“評級,目標價5.60港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:5.60港元
土地儲備充足且城市佈局更廣。隨着合約銷售增長的加快(2016-2019 年複合增長率:50.7%),中駿集團利用其商業物業的雙軌道戰略,已將其城市佈局開拓至截至 2020 年 6 月底的 54 座城市(相較於 2017 年底為 23 座)。截至 2020 年 6 月底,中駿集團累計了充足的總土地儲備 3,303 萬平方米(權益面積為 2,206 萬平方米),這將支撐其合約銷售的穩步增長,我們預測 2019-2022 年複合增長率為 17.6%。
商業部分可能帶來驚喜。在雙軌戰略下,中駿集團目標 2025 年之前擴大布局至 100 座世界城商場和共計 200,000 間方隅公寓,為此我們認為租金收入的提升可能會帶來驚喜。2020 年上半年公司收購的 10 塊土地中,有 8 塊土地配有商場或公寓部分。未來,我們預計公司會利用商業綜合體來加強其拿地優勢,獲取成本相對較低的土地。
物業管理可能分拆。公司 2020 年上半年的物業管理收入同比增長 46.4%至人民幣 2.33 億元。我們相信公司物業管理業務正發展良好,基於物業管理行業更高的估值,我們認為其未來的拆 分可能將會成為一個股價催化劑。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價 5.60 港元。我們的目標價對應公司 2020 年底每股淨估值 12.37 港元有 55%的折讓,目標價對應的 2020 年核心市盈率為 6.3 倍。主要下行風險:1)房地產合約銷售變慢,以及 2)過快的毛利率下滑。

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