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《大行报告》花旗:大型内银价值明显被低估 属捞底时机
阿思达克 10-12 15:56
花旗发表研究报告,预期中国银行今年首九个月的盈利增长与上半年相似,而各银行的增长差异将会很大。股份制银行,例如招商银行(03968.HK)、中国光大银行(06818.HK)等的拨备前利润及税後净营业利润增长表现会好过同业,这是因为更好的手续费收入及净息差趋势所致。

该行预期,内银在第三季的盈利增长出现差异化後,监管机构将给予银行更多酌情权,因为第三季的经济复苏强於预期;盈利下降将导致资本压力上升;不同银行或有不同的不良贷款问题要处理。另外,经济复苏推动信贷需求改善。该行看到第三季的信贷需求增长强劲。

花旗提到,中资银行的估值明显偏低(2020年H股市账率0.56倍,A股市账率0.77倍),认为第三季的业绩好过预期、美国制裁风险带来的嘈音减少,以及经济复苏将减少银行的国民服务压力。在H股当中,看到大型银行的估值被明显低估(2020年市账率0.4倍),而盈利下行风险或派息比率减少的忧虑已在股价中反映出来。

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