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康師傅控股(00322.HK):受益於飲料銷售的反彈,給予“買入“評級,目標價 17.10 港元
格隆匯 10-12 11:49

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:17.10 港元

2020 年上半年業績顯著好於我們的預測及市場一致預期。2020 年上半年,公司收入同比上升8.0%至人民幣 329.34 億元,其中方便麪銷售同比大幅上升 29.1%至人民幣 149.05 億元,飲料銷售同比下降 4.1%至人民幣 176.04 億元。毛利率同比上升 1.5 個百分點至 33.4%,主要受益於產品結構改善、增值税減免以及較低的原材料成本。計入非經常項,康師傅 2020 年上半年股東利潤同比增長 58.4%至人民幣 23.80 億元。

預計飲料銷售 2020 年全年恢復正增長。儘管 2020 年下半年方便麪銷售增長率將逐漸正常化,但新冠肺炎疫情推動了康師傅方便麪產品結構的優化,這或為長期可持續增長提供動力。另一方面,康師傅飲料銷售快於行業的反彈以及正在進行的產品結構改善或將有助於其實現飲料銷售全年正增長的官方指引。

上調至“買入”,並上調目標價至 17.10 港元。考慮到 2020 年上半年強勁的業績和 7 月/ 8 月樂觀的飲料銷售數據,我們上調了我們的盈利預測。預計康師傅在規模效應、庫存管理、市場感知和渠道定價上將佔據優勢。公司將繼續實施輕資產戰略。我們新的目標價分別相當於 22.1倍/22.7 倍/21.2 倍 2020-2022 年市盈率。

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