金界控股(03918.HK)：3季度收入恢復符合預期，大股東持續增持，維持“買入”評級，目標價 11.4 港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.4 港元
受疫情影響收入倒退，投注額恢復理想。金界控股 1-9 月份博彩總收入為6.09 億美元，同比去年 12.87 億倒退 52.6%。其中三季度總收入 2.37 億美元，同比去年 3.96 億下降 41.3%。三季度貴賓轉碼/大廳投注/角子機投注金額分別為 62.3 /2.7/4.6 億美元，同比分別下降 42%/42%/36%，較上半年同比下降 58%/54%/62%有好轉。重啟後 8 月 1 日到 9 月 30 日期間，貴賓/大廳/角子機投注金額已經回到今年一季度賭場受疫情影響關閉前71%/93%/100%，大眾市場博彩業務的恢復情況理想。
非博彩業務經營正在重啟。公司在成立 25 週年慶期間推出獎賞計劃，通過兑換一定籌碼可換取住宿和餐飲，目前金界娛樂城內 70%的餐飲店已經恢復營業，酒店房間入住率約為 30%，預料非博彩業務整體接待能力還有較大的改善空間。
大股東開始新一輪增持。公司大股東兼 CEO 曾立強先生繼今年一季度增持之後，從 9 月 11 日開始對公司進行新一輪增持，到目前為止本輪合計增持1408 萬股，摺合約 1.34 億港元，反映大股東對金界控股未來經營充滿信心。
現金充足，財務風險低。截止 9 月 30 日，公司有現金和存款 4.78 億美元，今年 7 月 7 日成功發行一筆 3.5 億美元利率為 7.95%的優先票據，足以償還未來最近一筆 2021 年到期的 3 億美元債務。基於公司的財務實力，公司發行的優先票據的利率也在穩步下降。
投資建議：我們根據公司的收入恢復情況調整模型，預測公司 2020-2022年收入分別為 9.6/15.5/18.7 億美元，同比變化為-45.5%/61.7%/21.0%；EBITDA 分別為 2.8/5.6/7.2 億美元，基於金界在港股博彩行業板塊中的相對規模和柬埔寨的市場環境，給予 12 倍目標 EV/EBITDA 估值，得出目標價 11.4 港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：全球疫情對旅遊和博彩業影響，東南亞大型賭場競爭加劇風險，金界三期項目延後風險，俄羅斯項目投入使用時間和收入不達預期風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
