滔搏(06110.HK)：耐克6-8月業績超預期，滔搏有望受益，維持 “買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
疫情期耐克龍頭地位凸顯，21Q1 業績快速恢復。（1）集團：耐克2021Q1（2020 年 6 月-2020 年 8 月）實現總收入 106 億美元，同比下降 0.6%；實現歸母淨利潤 15.1 億美元，同比增長 11.1%。而 2020Q4 （2020 年 3 月-2020 年 5 月）耐克實現總收入 63 億美元，同比下降38.0%；實現淨虧損 7.9 億美元，同比下降 179.9%。（2）大中華區：耐克 2021Q1 大中華區實現總收入 17.8 億美元，同比增長 6.0%。而耐克 2020Q4 大中華區實現總收入 16.5 億美元，同比下降 2.9%。在本次疫情中，耐克收入端受疫情影響小，品牌力凸顯，市佔率不降反升。且業績環比改善也很明顯，當然這也受益於 2020Q4 對一些費用的提前計提。此外，2021Q1 耐克大中華區直營收入同比增長 20％以上，其中電商直營同比增長近 30％，線下直營同比增長 10%以上。耐克大中華區 7-9 月線下直營流水的雙位數增長，預示着行業有望在四季度或已經在 9 月份開啟復甦期。
滔搏為耐克中國區第一大經銷商，看好滔搏下半年業績。滔搏為耐克大中華區最大的經銷商，截至 2020 年 2 月底滔搏擁有直營店 8395 家，有望持續受益於耐克的引領效應，實現率先復甦。且滔搏作為運動鞋服行業科技賦能精細化運營的典範，有望在疫情期實現更高效的費用管控，在復甦期更快跟進行業回彈，如（1）線下通過實時分析消費者行為不斷微調折扣、搭售等經營策略，並打通區域一盤貨，實現庫存聯通和快速補貨；（2）線上通過高附加值會員制，如安排國際足球明星線下見面會等，強化消費者粘性。
預計 21-23 財年 EPS 為 0.38/0.43/0.47 元/股。我們使用 DCF 估值法，維持滔搏合理價值為 11.94 港元/股，維持 “買入”評級。
風險提示。零售環境惡化、庫存去化低於預期、疫情反覆等風險。
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