《大行报告》高盛料中国今年第三季实际GDP按年增6.2% 料9月通胀率1.9%
高盛发表报告指,中国将於本月中旬(10月13-19日)公布今年9月的经济数据,以及第三季GDP。该行预期中国於9月的贸易增长会进一步走强,而包括工业生产、零售销售及固定资产投资在内的活动数据,及第三季GDP亦会有稳固扩张。至於消费物价指数(CPI)通账率预期会温和,主要由於猪肉价格上升幅度较低,及广泛信贷增长维持强劲。
高盛估计,中国今年第三季实际GDP按年增长6.2%,意味按季年化增长17%,对比第二季为录得按年增长3.2%,及按季增长56.3%。至於通胀率料由8月的按年上升2.4%,放缓至9月的上升1.9%,主因猪肉价格的上升幅度继续减少,但部分被蔬菜及水果价格的较快增长所抵销。
另外,该行又预期中国的出口增长将由8月的按年升9.5%,加快至9月的按年升12%,意味经季节性调整後的非年化按月增长3%,对比8月为录得1.8%下跌。进口方面,高盛估计将由8月的按年下跌2.1%,转正至9月的按年增长5%,意味按月的非年化增长大约为4.5%,对比8月为下跌1.7%,并代表9月的贸易顺差为563亿美元,较8月的589亿美元稍低。
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