黃金週旅遊收入恢復7成，旅遊板塊卻逆勢大跌
黃金週過後開市第一天，大盤一片喜慶。
但黃金週的核心要素——旅遊，卻是今天唯一逆勢走跌的板塊。
截止發稿，景點及旅遊板塊領跌大市，中國中免逼近跌停，眾信旅遊跌近6%，宋城演藝、天目湖、凱撒旅業等跟跌。
根據文化和旅遊部測算，綜合各地旅遊部門、通訊運營商、線上旅行服務商的數據，八天長假期間，全國共接待國內遊客6.37億人次，按可比口徑同比恢復79.0%；實現國內旅遊收入4665.6億元，同比恢復69.9%。
7月份開始，國內疫情已經基本得到控制，趁着一波牛市，旅遊板塊迎來一輪大漲。幾周跟着大盤迴調之後，繼續集體上行，8月份到9月中旬累計漲幅超過20%，期間並無多少實質性利好。而這之後，就進入了下行通道。
所以，節後景點旅遊板塊逆勢大跌大概率是因為節前利好已經充分兑現，或者説目前公佈出來的黃金週數據沒有超出多少預期。
此外，拖累整個板塊的中國中免和眾信旅遊大跌主要是因為免税行業迎來一個大競爭對手。10月5日，阿里巴巴同全球最大免税零售商Dufry達成合作協議，將在中國組建新的戰略合資企業（阿里巴巴和Dufry分別持有51%和49%股份），強勢入局中國免税行業，對行業格局勢必產生較大影響。
安信證券表示，國際免税巨頭入場或將擠壓現有國內企業市場份額，但並不意味着會打破現有免税市場的基本格局。我國消費者境外消費奢侈品超5000億元(貝恩諮詢2019年數據)，消費迴流空間巨大，適度良性競爭利於市場擴容，分享增量蛋糕。同時，在我國前期牌照監管嚴格時期，龍頭已積累起較大的規模、供應鏈和先發卡位優勢，預計後續競爭中強者恆強，細分參與者將各有所長。
值得一提的是，7月份眾信旅遊跟着大盤漲了一波，大幅回調後就一直在橫盤。其節後大跌還受到境外遊業務的影響，以2019年為例，眾信旅遊的出境批發和零售業務收入合計113.5億元，佔比總營收超過90%。而國外疫情形勢依然十分嚴峻，導致該公司的出境遊業務急劇壓縮，上半年僅為10.71億元，隨着海外疫情的二次爆發，出境遊限制放寬遙遙無期，其經營相當受限。
中國旅遊研究院今日發佈報告表示，假日效應正向節後溢出，預計全年旅遊經濟呈“U型”恢復和振興發展態勢將是大概率事件。今年國慶中秋假期與端午節假期相比，恢復進度分別提高了28個和39個百分點。人均每次旅遊消費也有明顯增加，旅遊經濟穩中向好的基本面進一步穩固，全年旅遊發展預期有望從謹慎樂觀轉向相對樂觀。
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