植耀辉: 港股维持区间上落 濠赌股未届吸纳时 汇控(00005.HK)伤透股民心
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，虽然上周有一个长假期，但相信不少朋友仍未能放松心情，皆因上周五(10月2日)传出美国总统特朗普确诊消息，随即成为大众其中一个茶余饭後的话题。不少身边朋友认为特朗普「中招」乃是苦肉计，是否有内情外人难以得知，但特朗普由「中招」到极速「康复」所带来的疑团确不少；而且根据过去竞选行情，越近选举日，将会有越多「黑材料」被公开，令选情存在重大暗涌。所以对投资市场来说，未来一个月肯定会十分波动。
除了大选因素外，疫情会否在冬季再度爆发亦值得大家关注。新冠疫情肆虐至今已差不多近一年，疫情对各地经济以至商业活动之打击亦远超原先预期。虽说各地已争分夺秒去研发疫苗，但病毒出现变种亦令研发难度增加，而且欧美地区似乎又再出现新一波爆发。所以虽然过去两个交易日港股表现不俗，但投资者仍不能掉以轻心。在未有实质利好消息之前，相信恒指暂将继续於23,200至24,200点水平上落。
另外，假期期间笔者跟不少朋友及亲戚碰面，他们大叹股市难「?食」之余，部分亦有请教笔者如何处置手上仍持有之汇控(00005.HK)。笔者早在去年已建议减持，惟在「情意结」下，却没有多少人愿意「放手」。不过当中有一个朋友的情况，颇值得分享。
事缘他多年前已买入数手汇控并一直持有，大概三年前开始更以月供方式增持，可惜过去几年汇控股价持续下跌，加上越来越多负面消息，令他对汇控亦越来越心淡，结果当汇控跌至30元附近时，决定暂停月供，并狠狠地将该批月供股份全数沽出。笔者有问他为何会突然有此决定，他只是淡淡回应一句：「我不想再理它了，连想或听到也不想」或者这就是所谓「哀莫大於心死」吧!但问到会否连持有多年之「仓底货」也沽售时，他却显得颇犹豫，最後始抛出一句「再望望」便再没有多说。笔者猜想可能那些持货成本很高，又或者心底里始终仍对「大笨象」抱有感情吧!
最後亦想谈谈濠赌股表现。受9月博彩收入逊预期及黄金周访澳内地客大跌影响，一众濠赌股表现均跑输大市。笔者自疫情至今一直对濠赌股投资前景相当有保留，因不论从客观环境以至真实状况，赌收一定会强差人意(正如下年度有相当大机会出现报复性反弹一样)。然而自年初至今大行普遍继续盲目唱好，并不断憧憬赌收会出现反弹，但这亦只是一厢情愿的想法而已；黄金周表现则肯定是一个重要分水岭，连唯一最大的寄望亦落空，相信即使继续唱好，但股价要重上早前高位机会恐怕不大。另外要留意的是，虽然股价近期有所回落，但大部分亦只是回调至今年5月至8月之水平。加上早前已有消息指内地正加强打击洗钱活动，相信濠赌股股价仍有下调空间，暂时仍不建议大家考虑相关板块。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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