《大行報告》瑞銀下調匯控(00005.HK)目標價至31元 指營運前景續面臨挑戰
瑞銀發表報告指,匯豐控股(00005.HK)由於基本面及市場氣氛疲弱,指其目前估值已跌至2022年預測市盈率8倍,即使投資者希望趁低吸納,以看好長遠增長和重組的可能,但近期中美關係及「不可靠實體」名單的憂慮,均阻礙投資者信心,指其指營運前景續面臨挑戰。
該行表示,下調匯控於2020年至2023年每股經調整盈利預測各11%、11%、14%及16%,各至0.32美元、0.43美元、0.51美元及0.56美元,該行降匯控目標價,由40元降至31元,此按分類加總估值法作估值。
瑞銀指,影響匯控股本成本的因素目前轉變不定,包括地緣政治、英國脫歐、美國總統大選後潛在轉變等因素,所以暫難以估計最終結果,但最有可能的情境是風險會隨時間消散,同時認為其資本情況亦有助其重組。
該行又指,匯控長遠價值在於利潤和節省成本,明年的淨利息收入指標為250億美元,是2019年的18%,或2022年預期經調整稅前收入的25%。成本預期會較2019年降3%,相信是來自公司增加重組計劃中,增加裁員的可能,預期有形資產回報率在可見將來維持在低於10%。
瑞銀料匯控於2020年至2022年的經調整有形股本回報率預測各為4.4%、5.9%及6.8%,對比2019年為10.4%。
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