家用電器行業-2020年家電三季報前瞻：Q3邊際改善持續，推薦白電和小家電龍頭
機構：廣發證券
核心觀點：
Q3需求持續恢復，內外銷均改善。
內銷：隨着國內疫情穩定，家電從生產、銷售到安裝基本都已恢復常態，需求端也逐漸復甦。據統計局數據顯示，7、8月家電及音響器材零售規模同比分別為-2.2%、4.3%，增速逐步改善。分品類來看，白電、廚電需求邊際改善明顯，以廚房類、清潔類為代表的小家電高景氣度持續。分渠道來看，依然是線上優於線下，據奧維數據顯示，破壁機、電蒸鍋、吸塵器、掃地機器人等部分小家電品類7、8月線上銷售額增速超過30%。外銷：海外疫情持續發酵，國外工廠無法及時開工，而國內產能恢復情況良好，部分海外訂單向國內轉移，利好外銷需求。據產業在線數據，7、8月空調、冰箱外銷均實現同比正增長，冰箱外銷增長強勁。整體來看海外市場需求仍較為樂觀，國內企業有望持續受益海外產能轉移。
白電：內銷保持正增長趨勢，外銷復甦明顯。
出貨端：7、8月白電內銷增速環比略有回落，但仍保持正增長趨勢；外銷出貨端增長良好。零售端：線下渠道，Q3單季度降幅環比收窄；線上渠道，前三季度空冰洗零售量均實現同比正增長，冰洗銷售情況優於空調。盈利端：受疫情疊加價格戰影響，空調前三季度均價仍同比下滑；冰洗前三季度均價基本實現同比正增長；同期原材料價格也呈現上漲趨勢。考慮到價格戰最激烈時期已經過去，隨行業格局肅清及新能效落地，均價有望進一步回升，盈利能力有望維持穩定。
廚電：線上銷售優於線下，地產利好或將逐步釋放。
疫情影響減弱，廚電行業逐步恢復。據奧維雲數據顯示，7、8月油煙機線下銷額同比降幅收窄，線上銷額保持正增長。伴隨國內復工復產的逐步開展，8月地產銷售、開工面積實現正增長，竣工面積降幅收窄，地產復甦對廚電板塊的拉動作用或將在Q3逐步顯現。
小家電：在長期消費升級以及直播電商興起趨勢下，年初以來的高景氣度有望持續。
破壁機、煎烤機和料理機等廚房小家電以及吸塵器、掃地機器人等清潔小家電線上保持較快增長。我國小家電滲透率還處於較低水平，長期消費升級以及直播電商興起趨勢下，年初以來的高景氣度有望持續。
黑電：價格戰持續。
7月內銷有所回落，總體企穩；外銷回升。行業價格戰競爭激烈，盈利能力或改善有限。
投資建議：
8月新冷年開盤空調行業表現較為穩健，且龍頭表現整體上優於行業。後續隨新能效逐步落地、格局重固後有望迎來量價齊升。同時，海外疫情影響趨弱，冰洗等出口持續改善。鑑於此，我們建議繼續關注業績穩健、長期競爭力顯著的白電龍頭:美的集團、海爾智家、格力電器。關注受益消費升級的小家電龍頭小熊電器、新寶股份、九陽股份。
風險提示：原材料價格上漲；匯率大幅波動；行業需求趨弱；行業競爭格局惡化。
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