傳媒行業深度報告：Q4電商掘金季,積極擁抱行業大趨勢投資機會，維持“優大於勢”行業評級
機構：東北證券
評級：優大於勢
報告摘要：
上半年電商/直播電商大盤迴顧：（1）後疫情時代用户線上購物習慣培養，行業景氣度不斷回升；網上商品和服務零售額同比+9.5%，線上消費滲透率8月達到25%，各類商品銷售額提速，行業趨勢向好；（2）直播電商基礎設施不斷完善，GMV實現快速增長；快手直播日活用户已突破1.7億+，電商日活突破1億，8月總訂單量超5億單躍居電商第四極，商業變現充分驗證；
Q4行業動態頻繁，重點關注：（1）“雙11”全年大促高潮，多元玩法貢獻核心增長；“雙11”作為全年核心大促地位不可動搖；今年各大平台“雙預售制”和“短視頻+直播”等玩法的推出，有望不斷提升消費者購物體驗，形成“短視頻種草，直播間收割”內容流量轉化閉環，對用户規模、交易規模都帶來更強信心；我們預測今年“雙11”總體成交額仍將保持26%-32%左右增長，對應5,178-5,411億元；
（2）直播電商交易閉環大趨勢下，服務商價值凸顯；近期抖音/快手小店政策加速平台電商生態構建，直播電商服務商從“人-貨-場”多維度高效賦能品牌和消費者鏈接，將充分享受直播電商平台發展紅利，並持續輸出核心服務價值，對應近1,500億元廣闊市場空間；
（3）“電商+內容”大趨勢，視頻內容貢獻用户活躍和變現增量；隨着近期手淘改版全面推進短視頻內容、小紅書上線視頻號、值得買平台升級短視頻/直播內容、芒果超媒發力“小芒電商”等舉措，我們認為“視頻+內容+電商”會逐漸成為各大平台標配，借力視頻內容帶動平台用户粘性和轉化提升，帶來商業變現新增長極；
投資建議：Q4行業高景氣度，“雙11”大促新玩法驅動，電商平台有望迎來成長新動能，相關標的有【阿里巴巴、京東、拼多多】等；隨着直播電商高速發展及抖快服務商生態體系壯大，直播電商產業鏈參與者將全面受益，直播電商和MCN相關標的有【星期六、中廣天擇、元隆雅圖】等；短視頻內容賦能，提振平台活躍度和交易量顯著，推薦關注發力短視頻內容升級的導購電商平台【值得買】和發力“小芒電商”的【芒果超媒】；同時關注電商/直播電商服務及營銷細分賽道，相關標的有【中國有贊、微盟、藍色光標】等。
風險提示：宏觀經濟變化風險、政策監管變化風險、銷售不達預期風險、消費者消費意願不達預期風險。
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