電氣設備新能源行業深度報告：實現碳中和，我們需要多少可再生能源？，維持“強大於市”行業評級
機構：萬聯證券
評級：強大於市
行業核心觀點：
近日，習主席在第75屆聯合國大會一般性辯論中指出：“《巴黎協定》是保護地球家園需要採取的最低限度行動，各國必須邁出決定性步伐。中國將提高國家自主貢獻力度，採取更加有力的政策和措施，二氧化碳排放力爭於2030年前達到峯值，努力爭取2060年前實現碳中和。”我們認為，碳中和目標的提出將為新能源發展帶來新的契機。
投資要點：
我國目前是碳排放第一大國，新能源發展勢在必行：根據UNEP數據，2018年中國碳排放達到137億噸，同比增長1.6%，碳排放量位列全球第一，佔全球總排放量的1/4以上。我國碳中和的實現需要各產業的強力支持，但其中最為關鍵的將是新能源滲透率的提升。而水電受到資源限制，有明顯的天花板。核電的工程投入大，經濟性較弱，生物質目前成本較高且大規模應用仍有較大難度，因此我們認為，從經濟性以及能源發展的普適性考慮，風電和光伏將是未來新能源行業發展的重要方向，無論是IRENA還是聯合國的UNEP也都給出了未來全球風電和光伏裝機量和發電量佔比將大幅提升的預期。
實現碳中和目標，風電、光伏未來空間巨大：根據我們測算，通過各行業生產效率的提升以及排放量的控制，預計到2060年除電力外的產業年碳排放量將下降至46.2億噸。從固碳量來看，我們認為到2060年我國森林覆蓋率將達到世界平均水平30%，森林面積2.88億公頃，按一公頃森林年固定二氧化碳量30噸計算，預計2060年全國森林二氧化碳固定量約為86.4億噸。因此2060年實現碳中和需要將電力行業的碳排放量控制在40.2億噸以內。據此測算，中性情況下，若光伏裝機量達到40%、風電裝機量達到35%，光伏總裝機量將達到5471GW,風電總裝機量將達到3275GW。與2019年末光伏204GW、風電210GW的總裝機規模比較，未來光伏還有近30倍的空間，風電還有15倍空間。
廣闊的市場空間下，行業投資機會巨大：基於碳中和目標下未來的巨大前景，我們強烈看好光伏和風電行業，尤其是光伏行業的成長確定性較高。光伏方面，建議關注全球光伏一體化龍頭隆基股份，硅料、電池片環節龍頭通威股份，以及優質賽道光伏玻璃下的龍頭福萊特。風電方面，建議關注國內整機商龍頭金風科技和海上風電龍頭明陽智能。
風險因素：碳中和目標實現不及預期；技術革新導致行業格局變化；貿易保護主義風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
