排隊排到腿軟？海底撈節後首日漲超5%
港股節後首個交易日，餐飲股全線大漲。海底撈今早平開後持續走高，盤中一度漲近7%，收漲5.3%，報58.7港元。年初至今，股價已累計上漲87.5%。全天成交逾2億港元，最新總市值超過3111億港元。
數據來源:富途牛牛
消息面上，據中國旅遊研究院統計，10月1日至4日，綜合各地文化和旅遊部門、通訊運營商、線上旅行服務商的數據，全國共接待國內遊客4.25億人次，實現旅遊收入3120.2億元（人民幣，下同）。國慶、中秋雙節“超長黃金週”期間，在假日經濟內外拉動效應影響下，包括海底撈在內的餐飲、酒店等消費股全線走強。
海底撈本次上漲，使其股價幾乎恢復到9月21日大跌前水平。不久前，因被網友質疑涉嫌抄襲巴奴毛肚火鍋產品，海底撈“抄襲門”醜聞登上熱搜。9月21日，海底撈大跌6.7%。但是，這次下跌不全是因為負面傳聞所致，其中也有高位調整需求的因素。
自8月底公佈中期業績之後，海底撈連續多個交易日大漲，股價在9月17日達到歷史最高，與3月份低位相比成功實現翻倍。然而雖然股價大漲，但海底撈2020年中期業績實則是由盈轉虧。
數據顯示，上半年海底撈營收為97.6億元，同比減少16.5%；其中餐廳經營收入91.5億元，同比減少19.2%。淨虧損9.65億元，而上年同期則大賺9.1億元。之所以造成這一結果，主要有業務擴張和疫情兩方面原因。
數據來源：港交所公告
上半年，海底撈新開業173家海底撈餐廳，全球門店網絡增至935家。業務擴張導致公司成本大幅增長，上半年，公司員工成本由上年同期的36.5億元升至40.7億元，增長11.6%；財務成本從上年同期的1億元增至1.8億元，增長79%。
分業務來看，疫情原因，海底撈餐廳門店客流量大幅減少，上半年平均翻枱率從2019年同期的4.8次/天減少到3.3次/天。但外賣業務收入相比2019年同期的1.8億元上升到4.1億元，增長了123.7%，佔總收入的比重由1.6%增至4.2%。
雖然半年鉅虧9.65億，但其依然上漲的股價和600倍的PE，表明市場炒作情緒較高。同時，疫情下單店營業額和翻枱率的下降，使其更多地依靠門店擴張去維持增長。但在缺乏新增長邏輯的情況下，疫情反覆極易對其造成衝擊，因此逆勢擴張的風險較大。投資者應警惕食品安全問題、門店擴張不達預期、原材料價格上漲、以及衞生事件情況惡化等風險。
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