《即日市评》友邦汇控领涨 但中芯遭美国「封杀」捱沽
恒指今日随美股期货及亚太股市向上。确诊新型肺炎的美国总统特朗普康复进展良好，短暂离开位於马里兰州的军方医疗中心，并向支持者表达谢意，而白宫医疗团队指特朗普的情况持续改善，最快周一可以返回白宫继续治疗，执笔之时美汇指数处於93.72，道指期货最新升153点或0.6%、纳指期货最新升72点或0.7%。十一「国庆」黄金周期间，A股於10月1日(上周四)至10月8日(本周四)休市。
港股在国庆及中秋长假後复市向好。恒指高开580点见24,039点，为全日高位，其後升幅曾收窄至215点见23,674点，全日升308点或1.3%，收23,767点；国指升50点或0.5%，收9,447点；恒生科技指数升4点或0.1%，收7,092点。大市全日成交总额925.81亿元，沪、深港通续因内地股市假期暂停。腾讯(00700.HK)及阿里(09988.HK)股价各涨2.6%及2.3%。
【友邦与汇控 齐领航大市】
金融股有支持，友邦保险(01299.HK)全日股价抽高3.7%收78.7元。高盛发表报告，调整对友邦预测及对其今年上半年新业务价值持审慎态度，但相信公司内地业务可持续改善，料友邦中国於今年下半年新业务价值按年增长7%，有望抵销来自本港及亚太区市场疲弱的影响，成市场焦点。该行重申对友邦「买入」投资评级及「确信买入」名单，目标价由原来83元上调至85元。
银行股造好，汇控(00005.HK)全日股价抢高4%收31元，渣打(02888.HK)股价涨4.9%收36.2元。瑞银发表报告表示，英国银行监管机构审慎行为监管局於9月30日发布一项谘询意见，就如何设置基於内部评级基础(IRB)模型评估的住房抵押贷款的资本要求提出了两个新要求，即任何单笔贷款的风险密度(风险加权资产/违约风险暴露)均不得低於7%，并且整个投资组合的平均值不得低於10%，料自2022年1月1日起生效。该行估算受影响较大的英国银行，为汇控及全英房屋抵押贷款协会，因两企业内部评级基础(IRB)模型各为5%及6.3%，低於英国同业。该行按敏感估算，料汇控旗下英国零售按揭贷款业务的资本要求将上升102%，料全英房屋抵押贷款协会则上59%。
【沽空率闯高 晶片股捱沽】
港股今日市宽略转弱，主板股票的升跌比率为22比19(上日25为16)；恒指成份股今日31只股份上升，下跌股份17只，升跌比率为62比34(上日为74比20)；大市今日录沽空154.37亿元，占可沽空股份成交716.3亿元的21.552%(上日为19.095%)。
晶片股捱沽，中芯(00981.HK)全日股价下挫4.6%收17.28元，华虹半导体(01347.HK)跌6.1%。中芯在昨日(4日)通过新闻稿确认某些供应商在向其出口产品之前，需要申请出口许可证。公司指，将会继续就此事与美国政府相关部门进行沟通。
高盛发表报告指，虽然对贸易情况或许可证的结果不抱任何看法，但较早前曾对中芯的先进技术应用及成熟技术应用两大业务的潜在影响作分析。在情景一，先进技术应用业务没有任何扩张，在此情景下公司的资本开支将会减少约45%，而收入则会在2020至2028年间下跌约15%；情景二，是先进技术应用及成熟技术应用均没有扩张，在此情景下资本开支将会下跌约90%，纯利则会减少约50%。两种情况之间的分别在於中芯是否能够从非美国供应商获得成熟技术应用设备。高盛暂维持对中芯基本预测，维持目标价28.7元，评级「买入」。
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