《大行報告》瑞銀:英國諮詢提高住房抵押貸款資本要求 料匯控(00005.HK)在同業中所受影響最大
瑞銀發表報告表示,英國銀行監管機構審慎行為監管局(PRA)於9月30日發布了一項諮詢意見,就如何設置基於內部評級基礎(IRB)模型評估的住房抵押貸款的資本要求提出了兩個新要求,即任何單筆貸款的風險密度(風險加權資產/違約風險暴露)均不得低於7%,並且整個投資組合的平均值不得低於10%,料自2022年1月1日起生效。
該行估算受影響較大的英國銀行,為匯豐控股(00005.HK)及全英房屋抵押貸款協會(Nationwide Building Society, NBS),因兩企業內部評級基礎(IRB)模型各為5%及6.3%,低於英國同業。該行按敏感估算,若任何單筆貸款的風險密度均不得低於7%,料匯控旗下英國零售按揭貸款業務的資本要求將上升102%,料全英房屋抵押貸款協會則上59%。
瑞銀表示,要制定銀行的股本回報率(ROE)會否高於股本成本(COE),是取決於巴塞爾資本協定的抵押貸款利差問題,指納入風險加權資產(RWA)計算中或不會整體上改變資本需求,但該行認為此舉提醒所有放款人,負債利差接近零的時候,而通過巴塞爾協議進行的資本需求上升,更廣泛的信貸息差是銀行提供合理中期收益的途徑。瑞銀指按數據顯示,即使抵押貸款額已正常化,新冠疫情後的前景也向好,抵押貸款利差處於非常高的水平,並稱保持定價紀律很重要。
該行指,英國當局提高納入風險加權資產(RWA)的要求,以降低相關借貸風險,令到抵押貸款利差變得更重要,料當英國經濟及疫情趨穩及脫歐後,相信相關貸款定價會改善。而該行予在英國上市的匯控「中性」評級及目標價410便士(約41.12港元)。
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