《姜子牙》、《我和我的家乡》双双破10亿，2部影片撑起的国庆档还能坚持多久？
在《八佰》余韵渐褪，9月相对平淡过后，中国电影市场终于迎来了2020年首个多部影片同时上映的重量级档期 - 国庆档。
10月2日上午，国庆档总票房（含预售）突破10亿元。10月4日，上映4日的《我和我的家乡》和《姜子牙》票房均突破了10亿元大关。
10月1日国庆节当天，总票房达到7.36亿元，总观影人次达到1834万，平均票价40.6元。而去年国庆节当天，总票房约为8.17亿元，总观影人次超过2147万，平均票价38元。
考虑到受疫情影响，电影院仍受75%上座率的限制，若以100%上座率推算，今年国庆节当天的总观影人数较去年增长了13%，可见观众在后疫情时代的观影热情是非常高的。
在影片方面，《姜子牙》《我和我的家乡》和《急先锋》三部电影于10月1日首映。相较之下，《姜子牙》与《我和我的家乡》前期宣传力度较大，备受市场关注。
去年国庆档献礼影片《我和我的祖国》首日票房3.88亿元，而今年的《我和我的家乡》首日票房仅2.58亿元。
今年国庆首日的票房冠军为《姜子牙》，达到了3.5亿元，创下了中国电影市场上动画电影首日票房的最高纪录。但随着长假的推进，《我和我的家乡》后来居上，上映4天后以累积票房10.72亿的成绩超过了累积票房10.33亿的《姜子牙》。
同期上映的《急先锋》5天累计票房仅1245万元；提前为国庆档拉开帷幕的《夺冠》上映10天累积票房4.81亿元；已上映45天的《八佰》累积票房超过30亿元，大概会是今年（春节档前）的绝对冠军。
有券商研报预测，今年国庆档总票房或可超过40亿元（去年国庆7天总票房为43.6亿元）。中金公司、东方证券等机构预测，国庆档票房可恢复到去年国庆档票房的八成以上。
不过，总体来说，今年国庆档的电影总票房大概率无法超越去年。两个主要的原因是：影片总数有所减少（去年9部，今年7部），以及虽然票房表现不错，但口碑评分普遍偏低。
同时，在观影需求层面上，跨境游尚未开放、许多旅游目的地人流量受限、担心新冠疫情的残余影响，这三个原因或多或少将一些旅游的需求导向了其他娱乐项目，而看电影可能是比较普遍的选择。
另一方面，疫情期间累积的观影需求在国庆的集中爆发，在很大程度上也是不可持续的。因此，虽然国庆票房成绩不错，但电影业在下半年仍然面临严峻的考验。
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