有色金屬銅行業專題：供需緊平衡，宏觀環境決定銅價上漲高度，維持“超配”行業評級
機構：國信證券
評級：超配
銅原料供需緊平衡且供應易受干擾
明後兩年全球銅精礦產量預期增速4%，較前兩年有所增加，但新增或擴產項目集中在疫情嚴重的南美地區，疫情導致礦山干擾率上升，項目進度延遲。資本開支領先精礦產量4-5年時間，2014年以來全球銅礦山資本開支和勘探支出持續偏低，今年疫情導致礦山資本開支大幅削減，遠期銅精礦沒有大幅增產預期。銅精礦加工費降至近年來最低點，今年長單加工費62美元/噸，現貨加工費已降至50美元/噸以下。廢銅供應收緊，進口廢銅受國外疫情影響和批文限制同比大幅縮減，今年1-7月份進口銅同比下降49%；國產廢銅增量難以彌補進口廢銅減量，導致國內廢銅供應偏緊，精廢價差收窄。
銅消費：傳統消費領域無虞，新能源+新基建成為新增長點
銅的傳統消費領域如電網、空調、汽車等領域年內累計消費增速均已接近或超過去年同期水平，四季度電網投資有望進一步釋放，汽車產銷維持增長勢頭。地產後週期持續帶動家電消費提升，房屋竣工面積緩慢修復帶動裝備電纜需求增長，今年老舊小區改造目標翻番，舊改全面開展帶來電線電纜替換需求。銅在傳統消費領域增速穩健。銅具有良好的導電性、導熱性和延展性，在新能源汽車、新基建等新興領域有廣闊的應用空間，未來將成為新的消費增長點。國外主要經濟體處於疫情後復甦階段，國內外銅消費邊際好轉拉動銅需求。
美聯儲寬鬆貨幣政策利好銅價
美聯儲採取“平均通脹目標”政策淡化對通脹水平的容忍度，實際利率水平繼續下降的概率偏大。銅是基本金屬中金融屬性最強的品種，銅價與通脹水平有較強的正相關性，與美元指數有很強的負相關性。
銅價走勢將繼續保持堅挺
全球銅市場供需緊平衡，沒有大幅過剩預期。原料端銅精礦和廢銅供應緊張，未來供應容易受疫情影響。全球銅金屬顯性庫存處於歷史偏低位置，銅價具有支撐且彈性增加。由於銅兼具工業屬性和金融屬性，銅價在全球經濟復甦的過程和流動性寬鬆的環境中有望繼續保持堅挺。
投資建議
我們判斷銅價仍將繼續走強，建議佈局具有銅礦資源優勢的紫金礦業。
風險提示
全球經濟復甦進度不及預期。
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