國防軍工-航空製造系列報告(一)：裝備製造的尖端領域,千億市場有望逐步打開，給予“優大於勢”行業評級
機構：東北證券
評級：優大於勢
報告摘要：
1、飛機制造業是高端裝備製造的制高點，我國已形成較為完備的航空工業體系。飛機是最複雜、技術難度最高的工業產品之一，一架大型飛機通常由300-500萬個零部件構成，飛機的設計製造業涉及了70多個學科和材料、冶金、電子、化工等大部分工業部門。飛機製造業對國民經濟發展有很高的帶動作用，其投入產出比是1:80，技術轉移比是1:16，就業拉動比是1:40，一個機型有500多個一級配套企業，有3000-5000個二級配套廠商。我國已將航空工業作為戰略性新興產業之一重點扶持，通過多年的探索形成了以國有軍工企業為核心、非公有制企業協同參與的較為完備的航空工業體系。
2、機體結構佔全機總價值的比重約30%，工藝裝備、鈑金零件、機加工結構件以及部/總裝是製造過程的核心。飛機研製過程週期較長且耗資巨大，通常按循序漸進的原則將研製過程分為概念性設計、初步設計、詳細設計三個階段。飛機主要有機體結構、發動機、機載設備和標準件四類，其中機體由機頭、機身、尾翼等結構部件構成，佔整機總價值量的比重約為30%其結構的基本特點是外形與構造複雜、零件數目多，尺寸大、剛性小，工藝裝備、鈑金零件、結構件切削加工以及飛機的部/總裝是飛機制造的核心環節。
3、國內軍民飛機零部件製造可預期市場規模約3500億元,航空零部件配套企業有望充分受益。國內以J-16、J-20、Z-20為代表的先進戰機有望快速列裝/換裝，未來十年將帶動900億元左右的軍用航空零部件加工服務市場。預計2019-2038年中國50座以上客機採購規模約1.4萬億美元，按照貿易補償標準和轉包價值鏈分佈測算，未來國際航空零部件轉包市場規模約1000億元。以ARJ-21、C919為代表的國產民航客機逐步批產，有望帶動規模約1600億元的航空零部件國內分包市場，產業鏈上優質核心企業有望受益於國內軍民航空零部件製造市場的快速發展。
4、重點標的推薦：國內飛機總裝任務主要由國有企業承擔，民營企業主要參與工裝/零部件製造、部件裝配等任務，重點推薦零部件加工環節的西菱動力、利君股份、華伍股份。
5、風險提示：軍品市場拓展不及預期；民機轉包及分包市場發展不及預期；行業競爭加劇。
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