中國海洋石油(00883.HK):桶油成本創新低助2020上半年業績超越預期,給予“收集”評級,目標價8.30港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:8.30港元
在全球新冠病例數仍不時回升的情況下,我們尚未在數據披露較及時的市場中發現強勁的石油需求復甦趨勢(中國除外)。受到人們行為習慣改變以及潛在的能源轉型進程加速影響,長期石油需求曲線或於後疫情時代發生根本改變。我們目前對2020-2022年布倫特原油價格假設分別為42美元/桶、48美元/桶和56美元/桶。
中海油2020上半年錄得盈利人民幣103.83億元,大幅好於我們預期,主要由於桶油成本創下歷史新低至25.72美元(同比-11.3%)以及減值撥備少於預期。上半年油氣產量同比上漲6.1%至2.579億桶油當量,主要受到中國近海產量增長所推動。
分別上調2020-2022年盈利預測150.3%/47.9%/21.6%至人民幣246.44億元/人民幣424.53億元/人民幣617.38億元,以反映我們下調的減值估計、更高的油價假設,以及公司在控本降費方面最新的進展。
由“中性”上調至“收集”,目標價8.30港元。我們此次上調評級,主要基於1)油市基本面在中短期內得到一定好轉,2)公司在生產和控本降費方面出色的執行能力,以及3)較低的估值(0.7倍2020年市淨率)。我們的目標價較我們用折現現金流方法得出的10.58元/股的估值有21.5%的折讓,並分別對應0.8倍/0.7倍/0.7倍2020-2022年市淨率。

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