農夫山泉(09633.HK)：1H20不温不火，抓住品類更替機會乃關鍵
機構：浦發銀行
疫情因素，“有點甜”的農夫山泉上市後首份半年業績不温不火，收入下跌 6.2%（康師傅和統一 1H20 飲料收入亦分別下跌 4.1%和 7.4%），淨利潤微跌 0.4%。其中，適用於居家消費的大規格包裝飲用水銷售增長 26%，成為業績亮點，而這得益於農夫山泉較早佈局此場景且消費者健康意識不斷提高。我們認為，消費者對飲品的選擇，歸根結底，選擇的是生活方式（較難逆轉）。飲料企業要持續成為行業贏家，必須有意願積極佈局並且有能力抓住重要品類的更替機會（例如從淨化水到天然水到天然礦泉水，從含糖茶到無糖茶，從稀釋果汁到純鮮果汁，從速溶咖啡到現磨咖啡等）。飲料賽道，坡長雪厚，建議投資者佈局全品類、全渠道、研發和營銷能力雙強的標的。
1H20 業績解讀。受疫情影響，農夫山泉 1H20 收入同比下跌6.2%至 115.5 億元，但剛性較強的包裝飲用水銷售微增 1%（其中家庭裝中大規格包裝水銷售增長 26%），其他產品（佔收入 4%）增長 211%（得益於 2019 年上市的咖啡和氣泡水等新品貢獻），更適合於户外消費的功能飲料則下滑 36%，果汁飲料也下跌近 10%。整體毛利率同比擴張 3.7 個百分點至 59.9%，受惠於 PET（約佔銷售成本 30%）採購價格下跌和有利的產品結構變動（水和茶的毛利高於功能飲料和果汁）。整體運營費用微跌 2%，行政開支上升 17%（因信息系統建設、上市費用和新品研發費用增加等）被分銷成本下跌 5%（上半年倉儲物流開支和廣告投入減少）所抵消。1H20 財務費用2,900 萬，因新增銀行貸款 15.5 億。淨利潤/攤薄每股盈利同比微跌 0.4%至 28.6 億/0.27 元，淨利率同比擴張 1.4 個點至24.8%。上半年資本支出 13 億，佔收入比 11.3%。運營週轉天數較 2019 年增加 3 天至 35 天，因電商銷售增加、疫情期間產量較小以及給予部分經銷商臨時賬期。
行業觀點。我們重申，健康化、去糖化、高端化是中國市場飲料消費的核心趨勢。我們尤其看好的飲料細分品類包括：1、天然水和礦泉水（收入提升，推崇純天然、無添加）；2、無糖茶（大勢所趨）；3、氣泡水（更高口感要求，日趨平民化）；4、咖啡（從格調消費向日常消費轉變）等。
估值。農夫山泉 IPO 以 41 倍 2019 年市盈率定價，目前股價較招股價升逾 60%。自加入港股通後，農夫山泉股票成交額約有 30%來自港股通，在估值方面，我們發現這部分投資者傾向於把農夫山泉對標 A 股上市的調味品龍頭海天味業（603288 CH），而非港股上市的飲料頭部企業康師傅（322 HK） 或美國上市的飲料巨頭可口可樂（KO US）。
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