軍工股全面爆發 包攬大盤板塊漲幅前8！
A股國防軍工概念今日全面爆發，漲幅榜上前8板塊都為軍工相關。個股方面，中船應急、晨曦航空封板，新餘國科、江龍船艇尾盤漲停，漲幅均20%。安達維爾、捷強裝備、瑞特股份等跟漲。
截至收盤，軍工板塊主力資金淨流入達23.44億元人民幣。
數據來源：同花順
消息面上，昨日，中共中央政治局會議決定，第十九屆五中全會於10月26―29日在北京召開。據悉，會議上將研究制定國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃。
此外，軍工也是國企改革的主要領域。9月30日，國資委將就《國企改革三年行動方案(2020-2022年)》相關事宜召開全國國資系統負責人會議，三年行動方案或將於近日對外公佈。
從產業邏輯來講，對十四五規劃的良好預期成為板塊上漲的重要驅動因素。根據2017年十九大目標，國防和軍隊現代化目標完成時間提前了15年，而十四五規劃是目標修訂後第一個五年規劃，預計軍費支出將繼續增加，將會對裝備需求帶來結構性調整，軍隊建設迎來極大發展。
另外，地緣政治和事件驅動效應亦在本輪上漲中體現明顯。近日，亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆爆發衝突，分別在國內進行了軍事動員並宣佈進入戰爭狀態；美國宣佈對伊朗實施新一輪制裁，波斯灣地區兩國對峙持續緊張；印度軍隊在中印邊境蓄意挑起衝突。國家之間摩擦頻繁，預計在短期內難以反轉，勢必對國防軍工板塊持續造成刺激。
從基本面來講，據中泰證券統計，今年上半年129家軍工企業共實現收入2641億元，較去年同期增長36億元；實現歸屬母公司淨利潤121億元，較2019年扭虧為盈。短期來看，軍工行業已經完全從疫情中恢復，二季度核心資產訂單環比呈現大幅度提升。
在改革層面，中泰證券認為，軍工集團上市平台資源持續整合，2020年有望持續升温；混改領域，建立激勵機制作為國企改革的重要手段之一將持續推進，激發板塊活力。
民生證券軍工行業分析師王一川表示，展望“十四五”，行業景氣度有望大幅提升，部分主戰裝備、消耗性武器大幅放量可期，相關產業鏈公司將明顯受益。15年以後，由於基本面下滑且估值處於歷史高位，國防軍工經歷戴維斯雙殺，板塊進入漫長的調整期，跌幅較大。短期來看，雖然估值有所修復，但仍處於低位，疊加未來景氣度長期向好，我們堅定看好軍工板塊“十四五”行情。
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